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The Validity of Models on the Information Content of Trades

Author

Listed:
  • Leif Brandes

    () (Institute for Strategy and Business Economics, University of Zurich)

  • Egon Franck

    () (Institute for Strategy and Business Economics, University of Zurich)

  • Erwin Verbeek

    () (Institute for Strategy and Business Economics, University of Zurich)

Abstract

Measuring the (private) information content of stock trades is an important topic in market microstructure research. A common problem of stock markets is that it is ex-ante not possible to separate phases where the scope for asymmetric information is likely to be broader from those, where there is less exposure to traders with superior information. Such a distinction is needed to directly test the reliability of the proposed measures. This paper applies a unique data set from the betting market to provide such a direct test. We exploit the fact that betting occurs preplay, i.e. before match start, as well as inplay. We test the hypothesis that measures of private information will be less pronounced for inplay betting quotations (where all actions on the court are publicly observable, and trading on private information is unlikely) than for preplay betting quotations. Based on more than 23,000 transactions for the 2008 Wimbledon final, and five additional matches, we present first empirical support for this relation.

Suggested Citation

  • Leif Brandes & Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek, 2009. "The Validity of Models on the Information Content of Trades," Working Papers 00120, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU), revised 2010.
  • Handle: RePEc:iso:wpaper:0120
    as

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    File URL: http://repec.business.uzh.ch/RePEc/iso/ISU_WPS/120_ISU_full.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2009
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    betting; market microstructure; asymmetric information; vector autoregressive model;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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