IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/rqfnac/v42y2014i2p357-371.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The implied intra-day probability of informed trading

Author

Listed:
  • Raman Kumar
  • Marius Popescu

Abstract

The paper develops a methodology for estimating the intra-day probability of informed trading for NYSE stocks, implied by the specialist’s quotes and depths. The time series pattern of our measure (PROBINF) in an intra-day analysis around earnings announcements is consistent with previous findings and with expectations regarding informed trading. Moreover, we find that PROBINF exhibits a strong and robust relationship with PIN, the level of insider trading and with measures of the price impact of trades. Our methodology complements the one developed in Easley et al. (J Financ 51(3):811–833, 1996a , J Financ 51(4):1405–1436, b ), as it can be used to measure short term changes in informed trading and information asymmetry around events such as merger and acquisition announcements, share repurchases, stock splits, dividend announcements and index additions and deletions. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Raman Kumar & Marius Popescu, 2014. "The implied intra-day probability of informed trading," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 357-371, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:42:y:2014:i:2:p:357-371
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-013-0345-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11156-013-0345-0
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11156-013-0345-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, February.
    2. Shafiqur Rahman & Chandrasekhar Krishnamurti & Alice Lee, 2005. "The Dynamics of Security Trades, Quote Revisions, and Market Depths for Actively Traded Stocks," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 91-124, September.
    3. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. "Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
    4. David Easley & Soeren Hvidkjaer & Maureen O'Hara, 2002. "Is Information Risk a Determinant of Asset Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2185-2221, October.
    5. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1990. "A Theory of the Interday Variations in Volume, Variance, and Trading Costs in Securities Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 593-624.
    6. Tarun Chordia & Richard Roll & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Market Liquidity and Trading Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 501-530, April.
    7. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1993. "Variations in Trading Volume, Return Volatility, and Trading Costs: Evidence on Recent Price Formation Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 187-211, March.
    8. Bakshi, Gurdip & Cao, Charles & Chen, Zhiwu, 1997. "Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2003-2049, December.
    9. Elizabeth R. Odders-White & Mark J. Ready, 2006. "Credit Ratings and Stock Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 119-157.
    10. Copeland, Thomas E & Galai, Dan, 1983. "Information Effects on the Bid-Ask Spread," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1457-1469, December.
    11. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    12. George, Thomas J & Kaul, Gautam & Nimalendran, M, 1994. "Trading Volume and Transaction Costs in Specialist Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1489-1505, September.
    13. Huang, Roger D & Stoll, Hans R, 1997. "The Components of the Bid-Ask Spread: A General Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 995-1034.
    14. Easley, David & Kiefer, Nicholas M & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "One Day in the Life of a Very Common Stock," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 805-835.
    15. Lakonishok, Josef & Lee, Inmoo, 2001. "Are Insider Trades Informative?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 79-111.
    16. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. "Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-746, June.
    17. Leslie A. Jeng & Andrew Metrick & Richard Zeckhauser, 2003. "Estimating the Returns to Insider Trading: A Performance-Evaluation Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 453-471, May.
    18. Easley, David & Kiefer, Nicholas M & O'Hara, Maureen, 1996. "Cream-Skimming or Profit-Sharing? The Curious Role of Purchased Order Flow," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 811-833, July.
    19. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1987. "Price, trade size, and information in securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 69-90, September.
    20. Madhavan, Ananth & Smidt, Seymour, 1991. "A Bayesian model of intraday specialist pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-134, November.
    21. Zeghal, Daniel, 1984. "Firm Size and the Informational Content of Financial Statements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 299-310, September.
    22. Vega, Clara, 2006. "Stock price reaction to public and private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 103-133, October.
    23. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    24. David Easley & Maureen O'hara, 2004. "Information and the Cost of Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1553-1583, August.
    25. Brennan, Michael J. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1996. "Market microstructure and asset pricing: On the compensation for illiquidity in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 441-464, July.
    26. Duarte, Jefferson & Young, Lance, 2009. "Why is PIN priced?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 119-138, February.
    27. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Harris, Lawrence E., 1988. "Estimating the components of the bid/ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 123-142, May.
    28. Lee, Charles M C & Mucklow, Belinda & Ready, Mark J, 1993. "Spreads, Depths, and the Impact of Earnings Information: An Intraday Analysis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 345-374.
    29. Stigler, George J., 2011. "Economics of Information," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 5, pages 35-49.
    30. Seyhun, H. Nejat, 1986. "Insiders' profits, costs of trading, and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 189-212, June.
    31. Yohn, Teri Lombardi, 1998. "Information Asymmetry around Earnings Announcements," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 165-182, September.
    32. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen & Saar, Gideon, 2001. "How Stock Splits Affect Trading: A Microstructure Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 25-51, March.
    33. Rozeff, Michael S & Zaman, Mir A, 1988. "Market Efficiency and Insider Trading: New Evidence," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(1), pages 25-44, January.
    34. Lin, Ji-Chai & Howe, John S, 1990. "Insider Trading in the OTC Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1273-1284, September.
    35. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
    36. Seyhun, H Nejat, 1988. "The Information Content of Aggregate Insider Trading," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(1), pages 1-24, January.
    37. Easley, David, et al, 1996. "Liquidity, Information, and Infrequently Traded Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1405-1436, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Pöppe & Michael Aitken & Dirk Schiereck & Ingo Wiegand, 2016. "A PIN per day shows what news convey: the intraday probability of informed trading," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1187-1220, November.
    2. Jeffrey R. Black & Pankaj K. Jain & Wei Sun, 2023. "Trade-time clustering," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1209-1242, April.
    3. Yin-Hua Yeh & Pei-Gi Shu & Ya-Wei Yang, 2016. "How Insiders’ Personal Incentives and Timeliness of Information Revelation are Related to Their Sales Timing," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(02), pages 1-26, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jagjeev Dosanjh, 2017. "Exchange Initiatives and Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Australian Securities Exchange," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2017.
    2. repec:uts:finphd:34 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Berkman, Henk & Koch, Paul D., 2008. "Noise trading and the price formation process," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 232-250, March.
    4. Sun, Yuxin & Ibikunle, Gbenga, 2017. "Informed trading and the price impact of block trades: A high frequency trading analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 114-129.
    5. Bardong, Florian & Bartram, Söhnke M. & Yadav, Pradeep K., 2005. "Informed Trading, Information Asymmetry and Pricing of Information Risk: Empirical Evidence from the NYSE," MPRA Paper 13586, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Oct 2008.
    6. Leif Brandes & Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek, 2009. "The Validity of Models on the Information Content of Trades," Working Papers 00120, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU), revised 2010.
    7. Lof, Matthijs & van Bommel, Jos, 2023. "Asymmetric information and the distribution of trading volume," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    8. Lamoureux, Christopher G. & Wang, Qin, 2015. "Measuring private information in a specialist market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 92-119.
    9. Mazza, Paolo, 2015. "Price dynamics and market liquidity: An intraday event study on Euronext," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 139-153.
    10. Lof, Matthijs & Bommel, Jos van, 2018. "Asymmetric information and the distribution of trading volume," Research Discussion Papers 1, Bank of Finland.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:001 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Sadka, Ronnie, 2006. "Momentum and post-earnings-announcement drift anomalies: The role of liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 309-349, May.
    13. Michael J. Brennan & Sahn-Wook Huh & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2016. "Asymmetric Effects of Informed Trading on the Cost of Equity Capital," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(9), pages 2460-2480, September.
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Pascual, Roberto & Escribano, Álvaro & Tapia, Mikel, 1999. "How does liquidity behave? A multidimensional analysis of NYSE stocks," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 6433, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    16. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    17. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel & Zhang, Xiaoxiang & Wang, Chaoke, 2016. "Invisible hand discipline from informed trading: Does market discipline from trading affect bank capital structure?," MPRA Paper 76215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Michael R. King, 2009. "Prebid Run‐Ups Ahead of Canadian Takeovers: How Big Is the Problem?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 38(4), pages 699-726, December.
    19. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. A. Can Inci & Biao Lu & H. Nejat Seyhun, 2010. "Intraday Behavior of Stock Prices and Trades around Insider Trading," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 323-363, March.
    21. Chang, Sanders S. & Wang, F. Albert, 2015. "Adverse selection and the presence of informed trading," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 19-33.
    22. Osler, Carol L. & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Price discovery in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1696-1718.
    23. Cheng, Louis & Firth, Michael & Leung, T.Y. & Rui, Oliver, 2006. "The effects of insider trading on liquidity," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 467-483, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informed trading; Information asymmetry; Earnings announcements; Insider trading; G14;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:42:y:2014:i:2:p:357-371. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.