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Pre-Bid Run-Ups Ahead of Canadian Takeovers: How Big Is the Problem?

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  • Michael R. King
  • Maksym Padalko

Abstract

The authors study the price--volume dynamics ahead of the first public announcement of a takeover for 420 Canadian firms from 1985 to 2002. Pre-bid price run-ups in a target firm's shares may be caused by some combination of information leakage due to illegal insider trading or market anticipation based on rumours in the press. The authors review empirical studies of illegal insider trading and trading ahead of unscheduled announcements to generate predictions for abnormal returns and abnormal volume ahead of the takeover announcement. They observe serially correlated volume and a pattern of return reversals in their sample. Pre-bid run-ups occur shortly before the actual announcement, accompanied by significantly positive abnormal returns and share volume. The stock prices of the target firm react significantly to the actual announcement, with both positive and negative reactions. These price–volume dynamics are more consistent with the predictions of the market anticipation hypothesis than the hypothesis of illegal insider trading.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael R. King & Maksym Padalko, 2005. "Pre-Bid Run-Ups Ahead of Canadian Takeovers: How Big Is the Problem?," Staff Working Papers 05-3, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:05-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Danbolt, Jo & Siganos, Antonios & Vagenas-Nanos, Evangelos, 2015. "Investor sentiment and bidder announcement abnormal returns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, pages 164-179.
    2. Siganos, Antonios, 2013. "Google attention and target price run ups," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 219-226.
    3. Aitken, Michael & Cumming, Douglas & Zhan, Feng, 2013. "Exchange trading rules, surveillance and insider trading," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/15, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    4. Ordu, Umut & Schweizer, Denis, 2015. "Executive compensation and informed trading in acquiring firms around merger announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 260-280.
    5. Madura, Jeff & Marciniak, Marek, 2014. "Bidder country characteristics and informed trading in U.S. targets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 256-284.
    6. Lorne N. Switzer & Jun Wang, 2017. "An event based approach for quantifying the effects of securities fraud in the IT industry," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 457-467, June.
    7. Kedia, Simi & Zhou, Xing, 2014. "Informed trading around acquisitions: Evidence from corporate bonds," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 182-205.
    8. Amporn SOONGSWANG, 2012. "Do M&A Enhance Values? Mixed Methods And Evidence," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 7(3(21)/ Fa), pages 312-325.
    9. Cécile Carpentier & Jean-François L'Her & Stephan Smith & Jean-Marc Suret, 2007. "Risk, Timing and Overoptimism in Private Placements and Public Offerings," CIRANO Working Papers 2007s-27, CIRANO.
    10. Aitken, Michael & Cumming, Douglas & Zhan, Feng, 2015. "Exchange trading rules, surveillance and suspected insider trading," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, pages 311-330.
    11. Ngo, Thanh & Susnjara, Jurica, 2016. "Hostility and deal completion likelihood in international acquisitions: The moderating effect of information leakage," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, pages 42-56.
    12. Gillan, Stuart L. & Panasian, Christine A., 2014. "On Litigation Risk and Disclosure Complexity: Evidence from Canadian Firms Cross-Listed in the US," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 426-454.
    13. Eckbo, B. Espen, 2009. "Bidding strategies and takeover premiums: A review," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, pages 149-178.
    14. Wang, Ying & Lahr, Henry, 2017. "Takeover law to protect shareholders: Increasing efficiency or merely redistributing gains?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, pages 288-315.
    15. Agrawal, Anup & Nasser, Tareque, 2012. "Insider trading in takeover targets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, pages 598-625.
    16. repec:eee:reveco:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:174-192 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Cumming, Douglas & Dannhauser, Robert & Johan, Sofia, 2015. "Financial market misconduct and agency conflicts: A synthesis and future directions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, pages 150-168.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial markets;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

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