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Consumption and Income Expectations during Covid-19

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Abstract

Using a survey of Italian households administered in November 2021, we study the effect of microeconomic and macroeconomic expectations (about the health crisis and fear of contagion among others) on consumption expectations in 2022. The survey elicits individual-level indicators of income and consumption expectations, distinguishing between consumption at home, away from home, online and total. We find that expected household income and expected aggregate GDP growth are strongly related to consumption expectations; income risk is positively associated with expected consumption growth for richer households, confirming the presence of a precautionary saving motive.

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  • Giovanni Immordino & Tullio Jappelli & Tommaso Oliviero, 2022. "Consumption and Income Expectations during Covid-19," CSEF Working Papers 647, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:647
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    1. Olivier Coibion & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Geoff Kenny & Michael Weber, 2024. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(3), pages 645-677, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption Expectations; Income Expectations; Covid-19 Crisis.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving

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