IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinantes de las tasas universitarias de graduación, retención y deserción en Puerto Rico: Un estudio de Caso


  • Horacio Matos-Díaz


En este estudio se modelan las probabilidades de graduación, deserción y retención en la Universidad de Puerto Rico en Bayamón. Con este propósito, el expediente académico de cada uno de los 17,814 estudiantes admitidosdurante los anos académicos de 1995-96 a 2005-06 se rastrea hasta elúltimo semestre del período y se determina su estatus académico: graduado,trasladado, activo, suspendido, dado de baja total o desertor. Basados en laproporción de estudiantes que pertenecen a las primeras tres categorías, se evidencia un limitado desempeno institucional, pues sólo un 44 por ciento tuvouna ejecución académica exitosa. Las probabilidades de graduación, retencióny deserción de los estudiantes varían a través del tiempo y están significativamente influidas por su género, sus programas académicos, así como por las escuelas y las universidades de donde proceden.**This paper estimates the probabilities of graduation, retention, and attrition for the University of Puerto Rico at Bayamón. For this purpose, the academic record of each one of the 17,814 students admitted during the academic years 1995-96 up to 2005-06 (spring) is scrutinized. The academic status of students is classified as graduated, transferred, active, total withdrawal, or disappeared. The evidence points to a record of limited academic success: For the period analyzed, only 44 percent of students got their degree. The students' probabilities of graduation, retention, and attrition vary over time and are significantly influenced by gender, academic programs, and the high schoolsand universities from which they came from.

Suggested Citation

  • Horacio Matos-Díaz, 2009. "Determinantes de las tasas universitarias de graduación, retención y deserción en Puerto Rico: Un estudio de Caso," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000151:006237

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Sandy, Jonathan & Gonzalez, Arturo & Hilmer, Michael J., 2006. "Alternative paths to college completion: Effect of attending a 2-year school on the probability of completing a 4-year degree," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 463-471, October.
    2. Stratton, Leslie S. & O'Toole, Dennis M. & Wetzel, James N., 2008. "A multinomial logit model of college stopout and dropout behavior," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 319-331, June.
    3. Jeremy P. Smith & Robin A. Naylor, 2001. "Dropping out of university: A statistical analysis of the probability of withdrawal for UK university students," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(2), pages 389-405.
    4. Murphy, Kevin M & Welch, Finis, 1993. "Inequality and Relative Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 104-109, May.
    5. Winship C. Fuller & Charles F. Manski & David A. Wise, 1982. "New Evidence on the Economic Determinants of Postsecondary Schooling Choices," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 17(4), pages 477-498.
    6. Arulampalam, Wiji & Naylor, Robin A. & Smith, Jeremy P., 2005. "Effects of in-class variation and student rank on the probability of withdrawal: cross-section and time-series analysis for UK university students," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 251-262, June.
    7. Montmarquette, Claude & Mahseredjian, Sophie & Houle, Rachel, 2001. "The determinants of university dropouts: a bivariate probability model with sample selection," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 475-484, October.
    8. Di Pietro, Giorgio & Cutillo, Andrea, 2008. "Degree flexibility and university drop-out: The Italian experience," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 546-555, October.
    9. DesJardins, Stephen L. & Ahlburg, Dennis A. & McCall, Brian P., 2006. "The effects of interrupted enrollment on graduation from college: Racial, income, and ability differences," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 575-590, December.
    10. Dominic J. Brewer & Eric Eide & Ronald G. Ehrenberg, 1996. "Does It Pay To Attend An Elite Private College? Cross Cohort Evidence on the Effects of College Quality on Earnings," NBER Working Papers 5613, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Stephen L. DesJardins & Dennis A. Ahlburg & Brian P. McCall, 2002. "A Temporal Investigation of Factors Related to Timely Degree Completion," The Journal of Higher Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(5), pages 555-581, September.
    12. Audrey Light & Wayne Strayer, 2000. "Determinants of College Completion: School Quality or Student Ability?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 35(2), pages 299-332.
    13. Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Vincenzo Quadrini & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 1997. "Dimensions of inequality: facts on the U.S. distributions of earnings, income, and wealth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 21(Spr), pages 3-21.
    14. Geraint Johnes & Jill Johnes (ed.), 2004. "International Handbook on the Economics of Education," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2847, December.
    15. Jepsen, Christopher, 2008. "Multinomial probit estimates of college completion at 2-year and 4-year schools," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 155-160, February.
    16. Singell, Larry Jr., 2004. "Come and stay a while: does financial aid effect retention conditioned on enrollment at a large public university?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 459-471, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aina, Carmen & Baici, Eliana & Casalone, Giorgia & Pastore, Francesco, 2022. "The determinants of university dropout: A review of the socio-economic literature," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Aina, Carmen & Baici, Eliana & Casalone, Giorgia & Pastore, Francesco, 2018. "The Economics of University Dropouts and Delayed Graduation: A Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 11421, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Philippe Cyrenne & Alan Chan, 2019. "The Determinants of Student Success in University: A Generalized Ordered Logit Approach," Departmental Working Papers 2019-03, The University of Winnipeg, Department of Economics.
    4. Contini, Dalit & Salza, Guido, 2020. "Too few university graduates. Inclusiveness and effectiveness of the Italian higher education system," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Marialuisa Restaino, 2008. "Dropping out of University of Salerno: a survival approach," Working Papers 3_193, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Università degli Studi di Salerno.
    6. CARRIERI, Vincenzo & D'AMATO, Marcello & ZOTTI, Roberto, 2013. "Selective Admission Tests and Students' Performances. Evidence from a Natural Experiment in a Large Italian University," CELPE Working Papers 0/00, CELPE - Centre of Labour Economics and Economic Policy, University of Salerno, Italy.
    7. Contini,Dalit & Ricciardi,Riccardo & Romito,Marco & Salza,Guido & Zotti,Roberto, 2020. "Improving university dropout and student careers. What room for institutional action?," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202004, University of Turin.
    8. Kurlaender, Michal & Jackson, Jacob & Howell, Jessica S. & Grodsky, Eric, 2014. "College course scarcity and time to degree," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 24-39.
    9. Di Pietro, Giorgio & Cutillo, Andrea, 2008. "Degree flexibility and university drop-out: The Italian experience," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 546-555, October.
    10. Stephen E. Childs & Ross Finnie & Felice Martinello, 2017. "Postsecondary Student Persistence and Pathways: Evidence From the YITS-A in Canada," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 58(3), pages 270-294, May.
    11. Stratton, Leslie S. & O'Toole, Dennis M. & Wetzel, James N., 2006. "Are the Factors Affecting Dropout Behavior Related to Initial Enrollment Intensity for College Undergraduates?," IZA Discussion Papers 1951, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Elias Katsikas & Theologos Dergiades, 2012. "Revising higher education policy in Greece: filling the Danaids’ Jar," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 279-292, August.
    13. Carmen Aina, 2010. "The Determinants of Educational Attainment, University Drop-out and Time-to-Degree. A focus on Italy," Working Papers 132, SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics - University of Eastern Piedmont.
    14. Gitto, Lara & Minervini, Leo Fulvio & Monaco, Luisa, 2016. "University dropouts in Italy: Are supply side characteristics part of the problem?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 108-116.
    15. Darshak Patel & Christopher Jepsen, 2018. "Hazard Model Analysis of Community College Outcomes," Working Papers 201823, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    16. Roberto Zotti, 2015. "Should I Stay Or Should I Go? Dropping Out From University: An Empirical Analysis Of Students’ Performances," Working Papers 70, AlmaLaurea Inter-University Consortium.
    17. Paola Perchinunno & Massimo Bilancia & Domenico Vitale, 2021. "A Statistical Analysis of Factors Affecting Higher Education Dropouts," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 156(2), pages 341-362, August.
    18. Serge Atherwood & Gabriela Sánchez-Soto, 2023. "Does Social Class Matter Equally for the Timely Transition Into and Out of College? Evidence from the NLSY97," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 64(1), pages 95-128, February.
    19. Behr Andreas & Giese Marco & Teguim K Herve D. & Theune Katja, 2020. "Early Prediction of University Dropouts – A Random Forest Approach," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 240(6), pages 743-789, December.
    20. Alon, Sigal, 2007. "The influence of financial aid in leveling group differences in graduating from elite institutions," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 296-311, June.

    More about this item


    graduación; deserción; retención; ÍGS; métodos de máximaverosimilitud.**graduation; retention; attrition; IGS; maximum likelihood methods.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000151:006237. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Facultad de Economía (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.