IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/22730.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Accounting for Price Endogeneity in Airline Itinerary Choice Models: An Application to Continental U.S. Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Virginie Lurkin
  • Laurie A. Garrow
  • Matthew J. Higgins
  • Jeffrey P. Newman
  • Michael Schyns

Abstract

Network planning models, which forecast the profitability of airline schedules, support many critical decisions, including equipment purchase decisions. Network planning models include an itinerary choice model that is used to allocate air total demand in a city pair to different itineraries. Multinomial logit (MNL) models are commonly used in practice and capture how individuals make trade-offs among different itinerary attributes; however, none that we are aware of account for price endogeneity. This study formulates an itinerary choice model that is consistent with those used by industry and corrects for price endogeneity using a control function that uses several types of instrumental variables. We estimate our model using a database of more than 3 million tickets provided by the Airlines Reporting Corporation. Results based on Continental U.S. markets for May 2013 departures show that models that fail to account for price endogeneity overestimate customers’ value of time and result in biased price estimates and incorrect pricing recommendations. The size and comprehensiveness of our database allows us to estimate highly refined departure time of day preference curves that account for distance, direction of travel, number of time zones traversed, departure day of week and itinerary type (outbound, inbound or one-way). These time of day preference curves can be used by airlines, researchers, and government organizations in the evaluation of different policies such as congestion pricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Virginie Lurkin & Laurie A. Garrow & Matthew J. Higgins & Jeffrey P. Newman & Michael Schyns, 2016. "Accounting for Price Endogeneity in Airline Itinerary Choice Models: An Application to Continental U.S. Markets," NBER Working Papers 22730, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22730
    Note: IO
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w22730.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jerry Hausman & Gregory Leonard & J. Douglas Zona, 1994. "Competitive Analysis with Differentiated Products," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 34, pages 143-157.
    2. Suzuki, Yoshinori & Tyworth, John E. & Novack, Robert A., 2001. "Airline market share and customer service quality: a reference-dependent model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 773-788, November.
    3. Kenneth E. Train & Clifford Winston, 2007. "Vehicle Choice Behavior And The Declining Market Share Of U.S. Automakers," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1469-1496, November.
    4. Lee Branstetter & Chirantan Chatterjee & Matthew J. Higgins, 2016. "Regulation and welfare: evidence from paragraph IV generic entry in the pharmaceutical industry," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 47(4), pages 857-890, November.
    5. Marco Cornia & Kristopher S. Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2012. "Price Dispersion Over the Business Cycle: Evidence from the Airline Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 347-373, September.
    6. Heckman, James J, 1978. "Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(4), pages 931-959, July.
    7. J. Miguel Villas-Boas & Russell S. Winer, 1999. "Endogeneity in Brand Choice Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(10), pages 1324-1338, October.
    8. Guevara, C. Angelo, 2015. "Critical assessment of five methods to correct for endogeneity in discrete-choice models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 240-254.
    9. Steven Berry & James Levinsohn & Ariel Pakes, 2004. "Differentiated Products Demand Systems from a Combination of Micro and Macro Data: The New Car Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 68-105, February.
    10. Bierlaire, M. & Bolduc, D. & McFadden, D., 2008. "The estimation of generalized extreme value models from choice-based samples," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 381-394, May.
    11. Proussaloglou, Kimon & Koppelman, Frank S., 1999. "The choice of air carrier, flight, and fare class," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 193-201.
    12. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Robert J. Gordon, 1996. "The Economics of New Goods," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bres96-1.
    13. Daly, Andrew & Bierlaire, Michel, 2006. "A general and operational representation of Generalised Extreme Value models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 285-305, May.
    14. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    15. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
    16. Manski, Charles F & Lerman, Steven R, 1977. "The Estimation of Choice Probabilities from Choice Based Samples," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(8), pages 1977-1988, November.
    17. repec:adr:anecst:y:1994:i:34:p:06 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Timothy L. Jacobs & Laurie A. Garrow & Manoj Lohatepanont & Frank S. Koppelman & Gregory M. Coldren & Hadi Purnomo, 2012. "Airline Planning and Schedule Development," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Cynthia Barnhart & Barry Smith (ed.), Quantitative Problem Solving Methods in the Airline Industry, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 35-99, Springer.
    19. Coldren, Gregory M. & Koppelman, Frank S., 2005. "Modeling the competition among air-travel itinerary shares: GEV model development," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 345-365, May.
    20. Jerry A. Hausman, 1996. "Valuation of New Goods under Perfect and Imperfect Competition," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of New Goods, pages 207-248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Koppelman, Frank S. & Coldren, Gregory M. & Parker, Roger A., 2008. "Schedule delay impacts on air-travel itinerary demand," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 263-273, March.
    22. Coldren, Gregory M. & Koppelman, Frank S. & Kasturirangan, Krishnan & Mukherjee, Amit, 2003. "Modeling aggregate air-travel itinerary shares: logit model development at a major US airline," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(6), pages 361-369.
    23. Olivier Armantier & Oliver Richard, 2008. "Domestic airline alliances and consumer welfare," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 39(3), pages 875-904, September.
    24. Cristian Angelo Guevara & Moshe E. Ben-Akiva, 2012. "Change of Scale and Forecasting with the Control-Function Method in Logit Models," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(3), pages 425-437, August.
    25. Rivers, Douglas & Vuong, Quang H., 1988. "Limited information estimators and exogeneity tests for simultaneous probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 347-366, November.
    26. Austan Goolsbee & Amil Petrin, 2004. "The Consumer Gains from Direct Broadcast Satellites and the Competition with Cable TV," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(2), pages 351-381, March.
    27. Hotle, Susan L. & Castillo, Marco & Garrow, Laurie A. & Higgins, Matthew J., 2015. "The impact of advance purchase deadlines on airline consumers’ search and purchase behaviors," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-16.
    28. Philip G. Gayle, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Competitive Effects of the Delta/Continental/Northwest Code-Share Alliance," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 743-766, November.
    29. Mark Wardman & Gerard Whelan, 2011. "Twenty Years of Rail Crowding Valuation Studies: Evidence and Lessons from British Experience," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 379-398.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hotle, Susan L. & Castillo, Marco & Garrow, Laurie A. & Higgins, Matthew J., 2015. "The impact of advance purchase deadlines on airline consumers’ search and purchase behaviors," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-16.
    2. Gopalakrishnan, Raja & Guevara, C. Angelo & Ben-Akiva, Moshe, 2020. "Combining multiple imputation and control function methods to deal with missing data and endogeneity in discrete-choice models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 45-57.
    3. Thomas E. Guerrero & C. Angelo Guevara & Elisabetta Cherchi & Juan de Dios Ortúzar, 2021. "Addressing endogeneity in strategic urban mode choice models," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 2081-2102, August.
    4. Lurkin, Virginie & Garrow, Laurie A. & Higgins, Matthew J. & Newman, Jeffrey P. & Schyns, Michael, 2018. "Modeling competition among airline itineraries," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 157-172.
    5. Fernández-Antolín, Anna & Guevara, C. Angelo & de Lapparent, Matthieu & Bierlaire, Michel, 2016. "Correcting for endogeneity due to omitted attitudes: Empirical assessment of a modified MIS method using RP mode choice data," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-15.
    6. Fukushi, Mitsuyoshi & Delgado, Felipe & Raveau, Sebastián, 2024. "Impact of omitted variable and simultaneous estimation endogeneity in choice-based revenue management systems," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    7. Guevara, C. Angelo, 2015. "Critical assessment of five methods to correct for endogeneity in discrete-choice models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 240-254.
    8. Gregory S. Crawford & Ali Yurukoglu, 2012. "The Welfare Effects of Bundling in Multichannel Television Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 643-685, April.
    9. Yang Li & Asim Ansari, 2014. "A Bayesian Semiparametric Approach for Endogeneity and Heterogeneity in Choice Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(5), pages 1161-1179, May.
    10. Rico Krueger & Michel Bierlaire & Prateek Bansal, 2022. "A Data Fusion Approach for Ride-sourcing Demand Estimation: A Discrete Choice Model with Sampling and Endogeneity Corrections," Papers 2212.02178, arXiv.org.
    11. Cristian Angelo Guevara & Moshe E. Ben-Akiva, 2012. "Change of Scale and Forecasting with the Control-Function Method in Logit Models," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(3), pages 425-437, August.
    12. Steven T. Berry & Philip A. Haile, 2024. "Nonparametric Identification of Differentiated Products Demand Using Micro Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(4), pages 1135-1162, July.
    13. Amil Petrin & Kenneth Train, 2003. "Omitted Product Attributes in Discrete Choice Models," NBER Working Papers 9452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Nevo, Aviv, 2001. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 307-342, March.
    15. Marina Giacomo, 2008. "GMM estimation of a structural demand model for yogurt and the effects of the introduction of new brands," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 537-565, June.
    16. Xing, Jianwei & Leard, Benjamin & Li, Shanjun, 2021. "What does an electric vehicle replace?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    17. Walker, Joan L. & Ehlers, Emily & Banerjee, Ipsita & Dugundji, Elenna R., 2011. "Correcting for endogeneity in behavioral choice models with social influence variables," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 362-374, May.
    18. Danaf, Mazen & Guevara, Angelo & Atasoy, Bilge & Ben-Akiva, Moshe, 2020. "Endogeneity in adaptive choice contexts: Choice-based recommender systems and adaptive stated preferences surveys," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    19. Danaf, Mazen & Guevara, C. Angelo & Ben-Akiva, Moshe, 2023. "A control-function correction for endogeneity in random coefficients models: The case of choice-based recommender systems," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    20. Cho, Woohyun & Windle, Robert J. & Dresner, Martin E., 2017. "The impact of operational exposure and value-of-time on customer choice: Evidence from the airline industry," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 455-471.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L9 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities
    • L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation
    • M2 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22730. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.