The Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis, Determinants of Default Probabilities and Implied Ratings in the CDS Market: An Econometric Analysis
In this paper we take an innovative econometric look at the Euro Zone Sovereign Debt Crisis. We are particularly interested in understanding which determinants have led investors to ask for higher yields on sovereign debt from the Euro shatter belt. We dismiss the definition of speculation previously used in the literature, on the basis of the irrelevance of Granger Causality as an operational tool for this purpose. Instead, we suggest that speculative behavior would only exist if market assessment would be unrelated to economic fundamentals of such countries. Using a cross section of countries, we improve on the scarce literature on the Econometrics of Credit Default Swap Markets on sovereign debt. Firstly, we use an ordered probit model to determine whether economic fundamentals are driving the implied rating assessments. Secondly, we provide a pioneering application of quantile regression to this domain, to determine which variables matter at different conditional quantiles of the implied default probability distribution. Finally, Fisher’s Z statistic is used to relate bond markets to domestic saving rates. Overall, the different methodologies support the conclusion that the domestic savings rate is lenders’ main concern. Economies with worse saving habits are penalized both in the CDS market, and in the sovereign bonds markets. Notwithstanding, for countries on the top quantiles of the implied default probabilities, public debt and external debt also play a significant role, increasing the likelihood of higher insurance premium in the derivatives market. When looking at the Portuguese Case it seems clear that public policies that fail to take savings into proper account shall always be deemed to fail, as the country had the lowest net savings rate in the EU27 in 2008, followed closely by Greece.
|Date of creation:||May 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +351 226 196 200
Fax: +351 226 196 291
Web page: http://www.feg.porto.ucp.pt/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lee, Myoung-jae, 1992.
"Median regression for ordered discrete response,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 59-77.
- Hausman, J.A. & Lo, A.W. & MacKinlay, A.C., 1991.
"An Ordered Probit Analysis of Transaction Stock Prices,"
Weiss Center Working Papers
26-91, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
- Hausman, Jerry A. & Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1992. "An ordered probit analysis of transaction stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 319-379, June.
- Hausman, Jerry A. & Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, Archie Craig, 1955-, 1990. "An ordered probit analysis of transaction stock prices," Working papers 3234-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Jerry A. Hausman & Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1991. "An Ordered Probit Analysis of Transaction Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 3888, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Powell, James L., 1984. "Least absolute deviations estimation for the censored regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 303-325, July.
- Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
- J.A.F. Machado & J. M. C. Santos Silva, 2003.
"Quantiles for Counts,"
- Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996.
"Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings,"
Economic Policy Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
- Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impacts of sovereign credit ratings," Research Paper 9608, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Powell, James L., 1986. "Censored regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 143-155, June.
- Santos, Carlos, 2008. "Impulse saturation break tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 136-143, February.
- Koenker R. & Geling O., 2001. "Reappraising Medfly Longevity: A Quantile Regression Survival Analysis," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 458-468, June.
- Yannis Bilias & Roger Koenker, 2001. "Quantile regression for duration data: A reappraisal of the Pennsylvania Reemployment Bonus Experiments," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 199-220.
- Carlos Santos & David Hendry & Soren Johansen, 2008.
"Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression,"
Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 317-335, April.
- David Hendry & Søren Johansen & Carlos Santos, 2008. "Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 337-339, April.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521848053 is not listed on IDEAS
- Manski, Charles F., 1985. "Semiparametric analysis of discrete response : Asymptotic properties of the maximum score estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 313-333, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cap:wpaper:022011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ricardo Goncalves)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.