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Are people overoptimistic about the effects of heavy drinking?

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  • Frank Sloan
  • Lindsey Eldred
  • Tong Guo
  • Yanzhi Xu

Abstract

We test whether heavy or binge drinkers are overly optimistic about probabilities of adverse consequences from these activities or are relatively accurate about these probabilities. Using data from a survey in eight cities, we evaluate the relationship between subjective beliefs and drinking. We assess accuracy of beliefs about several outcomes of heavy/binge drinking: reduced longevity, liver disease onset, link between alcohol consumption and Driving While Intoxicated (DWI), probability of an accident after drinking, accuracy of beliefs about encountering intoxicated drivers on the road, and legal consequences of DWI—ranging from being stopped to receiving fines and jail terms. Overall, there is no empirical support for the optimism bias hypothesis. We do find that persons consuming a lot of alcohol tend to be more overconfident about their driving abilities and ability to handle alcohol. However, such overconfidence does not translate into over-optimism about consequences of high levels of alcohol consumption. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Sloan & Lindsey Eldred & Tong Guo & Yanzhi Xu, 2013. "Are people overoptimistic about the effects of heavy drinking?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 93-127, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:47:y:2013:i:1:p:93-127
    DOI: 10.1007/s11166-013-9172-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Frank A. Sloan & Patricia A. Robinson & Lindsey M. Eldred, 2014. "Does Private Information Influence Automobile Insurance Purchase Decisions?," NBER Working Papers 20679, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Joan Costa-Font & Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto, 2022. "Biased survival expectations and behaviours: Does domain specific information matter?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 285-317, December.
    3. Marco Caliendo & Juliane Hennecke, 2022. "Drinking is different! Examining the role of locus of control for alcohol consumption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2785-2815, November.
    4. Yiqun Chen & Frank Sloan, 2014. "Subjective Beliefs, Deterrence, and the Propensity to Drive While Intoxicated," NBER Working Papers 20680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Kettlewell, Nathan, 2020. "Subjective Expectations for Health Service Use and Consequences for Health Insurance Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 13445, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. W. Kip Viscusi & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 2015. "The Relative Weights of Direct and Indirect Experiences in the Formation of Environmental Risk Beliefs," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(2), pages 318-331, February.
    7. Belot, Michèle & James, Jonathan & Spiteri, Jonathan, 2020. "Facilitating healthy dietary habits: An experiment with a low income population," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    8. Ziebarth Nicolas R., 2018. "Biased Lung Cancer Risk Perceptions: Smokers are Misinformed," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 238(5), pages 395-421, September.
    9. Frank Sloan & Lindsey Eldred, 2015. "Do preferences of drinker-drivers differ?," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 241-268, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Drinking and driving; Subjective beliefs; Arrest; Optimism bias; I12; D83; D8;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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