The Social Contagion Effect of Marijuana Use among Adolescents

Background: Research on adolescent substance use has consistently identified a strong relationship between adolescent behavior and the behavior of their peers. However, peer effects are difficult to estimate and causal interpretations must be undertaken with caution since individuals in most cases choose with whom to associate. In this paper we seek to empirically quantify the causal role of peer social networks in explaining marijuana usage among adolescents. Methods and Findings: Using data from a nationally representative sample of adolescents we utilize a multivariate structural model with school-level fixed effects to account for the problems of contextual effects, correlated effects and peer selections to purge the potential biases from the estimates of peer influence. Our peer group measures are drawn not only from the nomination of close friends (N = 6,377), but also from classmates (N = 19,335). Marijuana usage among the peer groups were constructed using the peers' own report of their marijuana consumption. Controlling for parent level characteristics, and other demographic parameters, we find that a 10% increase in the proportion of close friends and classmates who use marijuana increases the probability that an individual chooses to use marijuana by 5%. Conclusion: Our findings indicate that peer effects are important determinants of marijuana use even after controlling for potential biases We also found evidence to show that the influence of close friends and the more exogenous classmates are quite similar in magnitude under our preferred specification, supporting theory predicting the importance of peer influence. Effective policy aimed at reducing marijuana usage among adolescents would consider these significant peer effects.