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The Predictive Power of Subjective Probability Questions

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  • de Bresser, Jochem

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • van Soest, Arthur

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

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  • de Bresser, Jochem & van Soest, Arthur, 2017. "The Predictive Power of Subjective Probability Questions," Discussion Paper 2017-046, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:67bd2341-45c7-4e60-99e5-ff32b1be1668
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kristin J. Kleinjans & Arthur Van Soest, 2014. "Rounding, Focal Point Answers And Nonresponse To Subjective Probability Questions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 567-585, June.
    2. Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Inflation Expectations And Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act On Their Beliefs?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(2), pages 505-536, May.
    3. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555, October.
    4. Michael D. Hurd, 2009. "Subjective Probabilities in Household Surveys," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 543-564, May.
    5. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Katherine G. Carman, 2012. "Measuring Risk Perceptions," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 32(2), pages 232-236, March.
    6. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, September.
    7. Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Inflation Expectations And Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act On Their Beliefs?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 505-536, May.
    8. Binswanger, Johannes & Salm, Martin, 2017. "Does everyone use probabilities? The role of cognitive skills," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 73-85.
    9. Katherine Carman & Peter Kooreman, 2014. "Probability perceptions and preventive health care," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 43-71, August.
    10. Manski, Charles F. & Molinari, Francesca, 2010. "Rounding Probabilistic Expectations in Surveys," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(2), pages 219-231.
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    Keywords

    subjective probabilities; predictive validity; probabilistic polling; elections;
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