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Education choice under uncertainty: Implications for public policy

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  • Hogan, Vincent
  • Walker, Ian

Abstract

We analyse how progressive taxation and education subsidies affect schooling decisions when the returns to education are stochastic. We use the theory of real options to solve the problem of education choice in a dynamic stochastic model. We show that education attainment will be an increasing function of the risk associated with education. Furthermore, this result holds regardless of the degree of risk aversion. We also show that progressive taxes will tend to increase education attainment.
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  • Hogan, Vincent & Walker, Ian, 2007. "Education choice under uncertainty: Implications for public policy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 894-912, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:14:y:2007:i:6:p:894-912
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    Cited by:

    1. Justina Fischer & Torberg Falch, 2008. "Does a generous welfare state crowd out student effort? Panel data evidence from international student tests," TWI Research Paper Series 25, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
    2. repec:eee:eecrev:v:97:y:2017:i:c:p:1-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Natasha Bilkic & Thomas Gries & Margarethe Pilichowski, 2009. "Stay at school or start working? - Optimal timing of leaving school under uncertainty and irreversibility," Working Papers CIE 10, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    4. Hwang, Wei-Yei & Liao, Shu-Yi & Huang, Mao-Lung, 2013. "Real option, human capital investment returns and higher educational policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 447-452.
    5. Gries, Thomas & Naude, Wim, 2009. "When to Start a New Firm?: Modelling the Timing of Novice and Serial Entrepreneurs," WIDER Working Paper Series 039, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Brodaty, Thomas & Gary-Bobo, Robert J. & Prieto, Ana, 2006. "Risk Aversion and Human Capital Investment: A Structural Econometric Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 5694, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Bilkic, N. & Gries, T. & Pilichowski, M., 2012. "Stay in school or start working? — The human capital investment decision under uncertainty and irreversibility," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 706-717.
    8. Frank Fossen & Daniela Glocker, 2011. "Expected future earnings, taxation, and university enrollment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 18(6), pages 688-723, December.
    9. Fossen, Frank M. & Glocker, Daniela, 2017. "Stated and revealed heterogeneous risk preferences in educational choice," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 1-25.
    10. Torberg Falch & Justina AV Fischer, 2008. "Does a generous welfare state crowd out student achievement? Panel data evidence from international student tests," TWI Research Paper Series 31, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
    11. Santiago Budría, 2011. "Are Educational Mismatches Responsible for the ‘Inequality Increasing Effect’ of Education?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 102(3), pages 409-437, July.
    12. Falch, Torberg & Justina, Fischer, 2016. "Welfare state generosity and student performance: Evidence from international student tests 1980-2003," MPRA Paper 74553, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Daehwan Kim & Jin-Yeong Kim, 2011. "Valuing Income-Contingent Loans as Path-Dependent Options," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 27, pages 273-291.
    14. Marco Bertoni & Giorgio Brunello, 2016. "Later-borns Don’t Give Up: The Temporary Effects of Birth Order on European Earnings," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(2), pages 449-470, April.
    15. DAVIA, Maria A. & McGUINNESS, Seamus & O’CONNELL, Philip J., 2014. "Exploring The Role Of Labour Market Uncertainty In Explaining Differences In Rates Of Return To Education In Europe," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 14(3), pages 89-104.
    16. Andini, Corrado & Pereira, Pedro T., 2007. "Full-time Schooling, Part-time Schooling, and Wages: Returns and Risks in Portugal," IZA Discussion Papers 2651, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    17. Joop Hartog & Luis Diaz-Serrano, 2015. "Why Do We Ignore the Risk in Schooling Decisions?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 125-153, June.
    18. Koerselman, Kristian & Uusitalo, Roope, 2014. "The risk and return of human capital investments," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 154-163.
    19. Falch, Torberg & Fischer, Justina AV, 2011. "Welfare state generosity and student performance: Evidence from international student tests," MPRA Paper 35269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Santiago Budria, 2010. "Schooling and the distribution of wages in the European private and public sectors," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(8), pages 1045-1054.
    21. Anna Zaharieva, 2014. "On-the-Job Search and Optimal Schooling under Uncertainty and Irreversibility," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2-3, pages 299-339.
    22. Juanna Schrøter Joensen, 2010. "Timing and Incentives: Impacts of Student Aid on Academic Achievement," 2010 Meeting Papers 823, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Rosemary Walker & Liviu Florea, 2014. "Easy-Come-Easy-Go: Moral Hazard in the Context of Return to Education," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 120(2), pages 201-217, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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