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Inflation, real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters

Author

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  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero
  • María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera

Abstract

Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this article, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In particular, we provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for three key macroeconomic variables: the inflation rate, the growth rate of real gross domestic product and the unemployment rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, 2018. "Inflation, real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(42), pages 4540-4555, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:50:y:2018:i:42:p:4540-4555
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2018.1458193
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    Cited by:

    1. Goshu Desalegn & Anita Tangl & Maria Fekete-Farkas, 2022. "From Short-Term Risk to Long-Term Strategic Challenges: Reviewing the Consequences of Geopolitics and COVID-19 on Economic Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-22, November.
    2. SHANG, Yunfeng & XIA, Zhongwei & XIAO, Zhongyi & SHUM, Wai Yan, 2024. "An analysis of the time-lag effect of global geopolitical risk on business cycle based on visibility graph technique," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    3. N. V. Suvorov & S. V. Treshchina & Yu. V. Beletskii, 2020. "Design of Methods for Long-Term Forecasting of Development Trends in the Russian Economy (Methodology and Model Toolkit)," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(6), pages 636-646, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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