IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jbuscr/v20y2024i1d10.1007_s41549-024-00094-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluating Qualitative Expectational Data on Investments from Business Surveys

Author

Listed:
  • Lucia Modugno

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This paper assesses the properties of qualitative expectations on investment collected through business sample surveys conducted by the Bank of Italy. Non-parametric tests for the rationality of qualitative data are verified under three scenarios, namely in the case firms report their qualitative expectation as the mode, the median, or the mean of their subjective density. Under the first two scenarios, expectations result mostly rational, while, under the scenario assuming that firms have in mind the mean of their subjective density, rationality is not satisfied with the thresholds of response options defined in the qualitative questions. However, qualitative expectations result being not just noise but contain some signal of the quantitative outcome data provided by the same sample. Moreover, the analysis reveals that both qualitative forecasts and outcomes are coherent with their corresponding quantitative data.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucia Modugno, 2024. "Evaluating Qualitative Expectational Data on Investments from Business Surveys," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 20(1), pages 59-88, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jbuscr:v:20:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s41549-024-00094-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s41549-024-00094-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41549-024-00094-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s41549-024-00094-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectational data; Qualitative business survey data; Rational expectations; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jbuscr:v:20:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s41549-024-00094-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.