IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/ujbmxx/v45y2007i3p283-302.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecast Rationality in Small Firms

Author

Listed:
  • Gavin Cassar
  • Brian Gibson

Abstract

A large sample of small firms was longitudinally surveyed to investigate the rationality of revenue forecasts made within such firms. The analysis helps to address the dearth of research investigating owner/managers' forecasts of growth in firms and their degree of accuracy. Contrary to conventional expectations, the results do not support the contention that forecasts made by the managers of small firms are optimistic. Although systematic overestimation was not found, managers did tend to make forecasts that were generally too extreme, and tended to overextrapolate previous growth. These results are consistent with propositions that overconfidence biases and representative heuristics influence the revenue forecasts made in small firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Gavin Cassar & Brian Gibson, 2007. "Forecast Rationality in Small Firms," Journal of Small Business Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 283-302, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ujbmxx:v:45:y:2007:i:3:p:283-302
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-627X.2007.00213.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1540-627X.2007.00213.x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1540-627X.2007.00213.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:ujbmxx:v:45:y:2007:i:3:p:283-302. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/ujbm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.