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Interdependent Hazards, Local Interactions, and the Return Decision of Recent Migrants

Author

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  • Bijwaard, Govert

    () (NIDI - Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute)

  • Schluter, Christian

    () (University of Southampton)

Abstract

Consider the duration of stay of migrants in a host country. We propose a statistical model of locally interdependent return hazards in order to examine whether interactions at the level of the neighbourhood are present and lead to social multipliers. To estimate this model we develop and study two complementary estimation strategies, demonstrate their good performance while standard non-spatial estimators are shown to be heavily biased. Using a unique large administrative panel dataset for the population of recent labour immigrants to the Netherlands, we quantify the local social multipliers in several factual and counterfactual experiments, and demonstrate that these are substantial.

Suggested Citation

  • Bijwaard, Govert & Schluter, Christian, 2018. "Interdependent Hazards, Local Interactions, and the Return Decision of Recent Migrants," IZA Discussion Papers 11780, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11780
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aderonke Osikominu, 2013. "Quick Job Entry or Long-Term Human Capital Development? The Dynamic Effects of Alternative Training Schemes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(1), pages 313-342.
    2. Bijwaard Govert E. & Ridder Geert & Woutersen Tiemen, 2013. "A Simple GMM Estimator for the Semiparametric Mixed Proportional Hazard Model," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-23, July.
    3. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 531-542.
    4. Pinkse, Joris & Slade, Margaret E., 1998. "Contracting in space: An application of spatial statistics to discrete-choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 125-154, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    social multipliers; local interaction; interdependent hazards; return migration;

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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