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Interdependent Hazards, Local Interactions, and the Return Decision of Recent Migrants

Author

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  • Bijwaard, Govert

    () (NIDI - Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute)

  • Schluter, Christian

    () (University of Southampton)

Abstract

Consider the duration of stay of migrants in a host country. We propose a statistical model of locally interdependent return hazards in order to examine whet- her interactions at the level of the neighbourhood are present and lead to social multipliers. To estimate this model we develop and study two complementary estimation strategies, demonstrate their good performance while standard non-spatial estimators are shown to be heavily biased. Using a unique large administrative panel dataset for the population of recent labour immigrants to the Netherlands, we quantify the local social multipliers in several factual and counterfactual experiments, and demonstrate that these are substantial.

Suggested Citation

  • Bijwaard, Govert & Schluter, Christian, 2018. "Interdependent Hazards, Local Interactions, and the Return Decision of Recent Migrants," IZA Discussion Papers 11780, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11780
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    Keywords

    interdependent hazards; local interaction; social multipliers; return migration;

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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