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Deciding with judgment

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  • Manganelli, Simone

Abstract

Non sample information is hidden in frequentist statistics in the choice of the hypothesis to be tested and of the confidence level. Explicit treatment of these elements provides the connection between Bayesian and frequentist statistics. A frequentist decision maker starts from a judgmental decision and moves to the closest boundary of the confidence interval of the first order conditions, for a given loss function. This statistical decision rule does not perform worse than the judgmental decision with a probability equal to the confidence level. For any given prior, there is a mapping from the sample realization to the confidence level which makes Bayesian and frequentist decision rules equivalent. Frequentist decision rules can be interpreted as decisions under ambiguity. JEL Classification: C1, C11, C12, C13, D81

Suggested Citation

  • Manganelli, Simone, 2016. "Deciding with judgment," Working Paper Series 1947, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161947
    Note: 196912
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles F. Manski, 2013. "Response to the Review of ‘Public Policy in an Uncertain World’," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 412-415, August.
    2. Chamberlain, Gary, 2000. "Econometrics and decision theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 255-283, April.
    3. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    4. Victor DeMiguel & Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Optimal Versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient is the 1-N Portfolio Strategy?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(5), pages 1915-1953, May.
    5. Danilov, D.L. & Magnus, J.R., 2002. "Estimation of the Mean of a Univariate Normal Distribution When the Variance is not Known," Discussion Paper 2002-77, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. repec:taf:jnlbes:v:30:y:2012:i:1:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Manski, Charles F., 2013. "Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674066892, December.
    8. Manganelli, Simone, 2009. "Forecasting With Judgment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 553-563.
    9. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, Paul, 1986. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780122951831 edited by Shell, Karl.
    10. Jan R. Magnus, 2002. "Estimation of the mean of a univariate normal distribution with known variance," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 225-236, June.
    11. Daniel Ellsberg, 1961. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(4), pages 643-669.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    portfolio selection; statistical decision theory; statistical risk aversion;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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