IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

An Empirical Model of Industry Dynamics with Common Uncertainty and Learning from the Actions of Competitors

This paper advances our collective knowledge about the role of learning in retail agglomeration. Uncertainty about new markets provides an opportunity for sequential learning, where one firm's past entry decisions signal to others the potential profitability of risky markets. The setting is Canada's hamburger fast food industry from its early days in 1970 to 2005, for which simple analysis of my unique data reveals empirical patterns pointing towards retail agglomeration. The notion that uninformed potential entrants have an incentive to learn, but not informed incumbents, motivates an intuitive double-difference approach that separately identifies learning by exploiting differences in the way potential entrants and incumbents react to spillovers. This identification strategy confirms that information externalities are key drivers of agglomeration. Estimates from a dynamic oligopoly model of entry with information externalities provide further evidence of learning, as I show that common uncertainty matters. Counterfactual analysis reveals that an industry with uncertainty is initially less competitive than an industry with certainty, but catches up over time. Furthermore, there are many instances in which chains enter markets they would have avoided had they not faced uncertainty. Finally, consistent with the interpretation of uncertainty as an entry barrier, I find that chains place significant premiums on certainty at proportions beyond 2% of their total value from being monopolists.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.netinst.org/Yang_11_16.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by NET Institute in its series Working Papers with number 11-16.

as
in new window

Length: 61 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:net:wpaper:1116
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.NETinst.org/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Catherine Tucker & Juanjuan Zhang, 2010. "Growing Two-Sided Networks by Advertising the User Base: A Field Experiment," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(5), pages 805-814, 09-10.
  2. Victor Aguirregabiria, 2004. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Structural Models Involving Fixed-Point Problems," Econometrics 0402003, EconWPA.
  3. Chernew, Michael & Gowrisankaran, Gautam & Scanlon, Dennis P., 2008. "Learning and the value of information: Evidence from health plan report cards," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 156-174, May.
  4. Timothy Dunne & Shawn D. Klimek & Mark J. Roberts & Daniel Yi Xu, 2009. "Entry, exit and the determinants of market structure," Working Paper 0907, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  5. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Hugo Hopenhayn, 2003. "Market size matters," Working Paper Series WP-03-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. Brian Knight & Nathan Schiff, 2010. "Momentum and Social Learning in Presidential Primaries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(6), pages 1110 - 1150.
  7. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2004. "Sequential Estimation Of Dynamic Discrete Games," Working Papers wp2004_0413, CEMFI.
  8. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Social Learning from Private Experiences: The Dynamics of the Selection Problem," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 443-458.
  9. Timothy G. Conley & Christopher R. Udry, 2005. "Learning about a new technology: pineapple in Ghana," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  10. Magesan, Arvind, 2013. "Human Rights Treaty Ratification of Aid Receiving Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 175-188.
  11. Luigi Guiso & Fabiano Schivardi, 2007. "Spillovers in Industrial Districts," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(516), pages 68-93, 01.
  12. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Ho, Chun-Yu, 2012. "A dynamic oligopoly game of the US airline industry: Estimation and policy experiments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(1), pages 156-173.
  13. Otto Toivanen & Michael Waterson, 2005. "Market Structure and Entry: Where's the Beef?," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 36(3), pages 680-699, Autumn.
  14. William Kerr & Edward Glaeser & Glenn Ellison, 2007. "What Causes Industry Agglomeration? Evidence from Coagglomeration Patterns," Working Papers 07-13, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  15. Alessandra Fogli & Laura Veldkamp, 2011. "Nature or Nurture? Learning and the Geography of Female Labor Force Participation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 1103-1138, 07.
  16. Bart J. Bronnenberg & Sanjay K. Dhar & Jean-Pierre H. Dubé, 2009. "Brand History, Geography, and the Persistence of Brand Shares," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(1), pages 87-115, 02.
  17. Glenn Ellison & Edward L. Glaeser, 1994. "Geographic Concentration in U.S. Manufacturing Industries: A Dartboard Approach," NBER Working Papers 4840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Ren�Ta Kosov� & Francine Lafontaine, 2010. "SURVIVAL AND GROWTH IN RETAIL AND SERVICE INDUSTRIES: EVIDENCE FROM FRANCHISED CHAINS -super-* ," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 542-578, 09.
  19. Ellickson, Paul & Misra, Sanjog, 2006. "Supermarket Pricing Strategies," Working Papers 06-02, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  20. Caplin, A. & Leahy, J., 1993. "Miracle on Sixth Avenue: Information Externalities and Search," Discussion Papers 1993_20, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  21. Catherine Tucker & Juanjuan Zhang & Ting Zhu, 2013. "Days on market and home sales," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 44(2), pages 337-360, 06.
  22. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521772525 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Francisco J. Buera & Alexander Monge-Naranjo & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2008. "Learning the Wealth of Nations," NBER Working Papers 14595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
  25. Aguirregabiria, Victor, 2012. "A method for implementing counterfactual experiments in models with multiple equilibria," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 190-194.
  26. Pedro Mira & Victor Aguirregabiria, 2007. "Dynamic Discrete Choice Structural Models: A Survey," Working Papers wp2007_0711, CEMFI.
  27. Jason R. Blevins, 2010. "Nonparametric Identification of Dynamic Games with Discrete and Continuous Choices," Working Papers 10-02, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  28. Junichi Suzuki, 2013. "Land Use Regulation As A Barrier To Entry: Evidence From The Texas Lodging Industry," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(2), pages 495-523, 05.
  29. Andrew Eckert & Douglas West, 2008. "Firm Survival and Chain Growth in a Privatized Retail Liquor Store Industry," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 1-18, February.
  30. Avi Goldfarb & Mo Xiao, 2011. "Who Thinks about the Competition? Managerial Ability and Strategic Entry in US Local Telephone Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3130-61, December.
  31. Rob, Rafael, 1991. "Learning and Capacity Expansion under Demand Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 655-75, July.
  32. Andrew T. Ching & Tülin Erdem & Michael P. Keane, 2013. "Learning Models: An Assessment of Progress, Challenges and New Developments," Economics Papers 2013-W07, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  33. Ting Zhu & Vishal Singh & Anthony Dukes, 2011. "Local competition, entry, and agglomeration," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 129-154, June.
  34. Bresnahan, T.F & Reiss, P.C., 1989. "Entry And Competition In Concentrated Markets," Papers 151, Stanford - Studies in Industry Economics.
  35. Toivanen, Otto & Waterson, Michael, 2011. "Retail Chain Expansion: The Early Years of McDonalds in Great Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 8534, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  36. James W. Roberts & Andrew Sweeting, 2010. "Bailouts and the Preservation of Competition," NBER Working Papers 16650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Chamley, Christophe & Gale, Douglas, 1994. "Information Revelation and Strategic Delay in a Model of Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1065-85, September.
  38. Mark J. Eppli & John D. Benjamin, 1994. "The Evolution of Shopping Center Research: A Review and Analysis," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(1), pages 5-32.
  39. Chi, Feng & Yang, Nathan, 2010. "Twitter Adoption in Congress: Who Tweets First?," MPRA Paper 23225, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  40. Juanjuan Zhang, 2010. "The Sound of Silence: Observational Learning in the U.S. Kidney Market," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(2), pages 315-335, 03-04.
  41. Raphael Thomadsen, 2007. "Product Positioning and Competition: The Role of Location in the Fast Food Industry," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(6), pages 792-804, 11-12.
  42. Daniel Bennett & Chun-Fang Chiang & Anup Malani, 2011. "Learning During a Crisis: the SARS Epidemic in Taiwan," NBER Working Papers 16955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Panle Jia, 2008. "What Happens When Wal-Mart Comes to Town: An Empirical Analysis of the Discount Retailing Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(6), pages 1263-1316, November.
  44. Kim, Sung-Hwan, 2009. "Predatory reputation in US airline markets," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 592-604, September.
  45. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May.
  46. Han, Lu & Hong, Seung-Hyun, 2011. "Testing Cost Inefficiency Under Free Entry in the Real Estate Brokerage Industry," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(4), pages 564-578.
  47. Paul B. Ellickson & Stephanie Houghton & Christopher Timmins, 2010. "Estimating Network Economies in Retail Chains: A Revealed Preference Approach," NBER Working Papers 15832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:net:wpaper:1116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nicholas Economides)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.