IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/net/wpaper/1408.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Better Together? Retail Chain Performance Dynamics in Store Expansion Before and After Mergers

Author

Listed:
  • Mitsukuni Nishida

    (Johns Hopkins Carey Business School)

  • Nathan Yang

    (Yale School of Management)

Abstract

We study firm performance dynamics in retail growth using a dynamic model of expansion that allow these dynamics to operate through an unobserved serially correlated process. The model is estimated with data on convenience-store chain diffusion across Japanese prefectures from 1982 to 2012, whereby an actual merger between two chains takes place in 2001. Given the presence of serial correlation and selection biases in observed revenue, we combine particle filtering methods for dynamic games with control functions in revenue regressions. The estimated structural model provides us insights about how performance dynamics evolve before and after the merger. In particular, we demonstrate that the performance dynamics for the merged entity do not improve following the merger.

Suggested Citation

  • Mitsukuni Nishida & Nathan Yang, 2014. "Better Together? Retail Chain Performance Dynamics in Store Expansion Before and After Mergers," Working Papers 14-08, NET Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:net:wpaper:1408
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.netinst.org/Nishida_Yang_14-08.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward Kung & Hanming Fang, 2011. "Why Do Life Insurance Policyholders Lapse? The Roles of Income, Health and Bequest Motive Shocks," 2011 Meeting Papers 188, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard & Jonathan Levin, 2007. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1331-1370, September.
    3. Bart J. Bronnenberg & Sanjay K. Dhar & Jean-Pierre H. Dubé, 2009. "Brand History, Geography, and the Persistence of Brand Shares," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(1), pages 87-115, February.
    4. Hu Yingyao & Shum Matthew & Tan Wei & Xiao Ruli, 2017. "A Simple Estimator for Dynamic Models with Serially Correlated Unobservables," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-16, January.
    5. Norris I. Bruce, 2008. "Pooling and Dynamic Forgetting Effects in Multitheme Advertising: Tracking the Advertising Sales Relationship with Particle Filters," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(4), pages 659-673, 07-08.
    6. Paul Ellickson & Sanjog Misra, 2012. "Enriching interactions: Incorporating outcome data into static discrete games," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, March.
    7. Junichi Suzuki, 2013. "Land Use Regulation As A Barrier To Entry: Evidence From The Texas Lodging Industry," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(2), pages 495-523, May.
    8. Brett Hollenbeck, 2020. "Horizontal mergers and innovation in concentrated industries," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-37, March.
    9. Paul Ellickson & Beresteanu Arie, 2005. "The Dynamics of Retail Oligopolies," 2005 Meeting Papers 829, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Han Hong & Ahmed Khwaja & A. Ronald Gallant, 2010. "Dynamic Entry with Cross Product Spillovers: An Application to the Generic Drug Industry," Working Papers 10-59, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    11. Paul B. Ellickson & Stephanie Houghton & Christopher Timmins, 2013. "Estimating network economies in retail chains: a revealed preference approach," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 44(2), pages 169-193, June.
    12. Richard Ericson & Ariel Pakes, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82.
    13. Park, Minjung, 2013. "Understanding merger incentives and outcomes in the US mutual fund industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4368-4380.
    14. C. Lanier Benkard, 2000. "Learning and Forgetting: The Dynamics of Aircraft Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1034-1054, September.
    15. Przemysław Jeziorski, 2014. "Estimation of cost efficiencies from mergers: application to US radio," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 45(4), pages 816-846, December.
    16. Jason R. Blevins, 2016. "Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Estimating Dynamic Microeconomic Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(5), pages 773-804, August.
    17. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Ho, Chun-Yu, 2012. "A dynamic oligopoly game of the US airline industry: Estimation and policy experiments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(1), pages 156-173.
    18. Peter Arcidiacono & Robert A. Miller, 2011. "Conditional Choice Probability Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models With Unobserved Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(6), pages 1823-1867, November.
    19. Joseph Pancras & S. Sriram & V. Kumar, 2012. "Empirical Investigation of Retail Expansion and Cannibalization in a Dynamic Environment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(11), pages 2001-2018, November.
    20. Klaus Gugler & Ralph Siebert, 2007. "Market Power versus Efficiency Effects of Mergers and Research Joint Ventures: Evidence from the Semiconductor Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 645-659, November.
    21. Katja Seim, 2006. "An empirical model of firm entry with endogenous product‐type choices," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(3), pages 619-640, September.
    22. Nathan Yang, 2012. "Burger King and McDonald’s: Where’s the Spillover?," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 255-281, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nicholas G. Rupp & Kerry M. Tan, 2019. "Mergers And Product Quality: A Silver Lining From De‐Hubbing In The U.S. Airline Industry," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(4), pages 652-672, October.
    2. Brett Hollenbeck, 2020. "Horizontal mergers and innovation in concentrated industries," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-37, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jason R. Blevins & Ahmed Khwaja & Nathan Yang, 2018. "Firm Expansion, Size Spillovers, and Market Dominance in Retail Chain Dynamics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(9), pages 4070-4093.
    2. Otsu, Taisuke & Pesendorfer, Martin & Takahashi, Yuya, 2014. "Testing Equilibrium Multiplicity in Dynamic Games," CEPR Discussion Papers 10111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Suzuki, Junichi, 2015. "Empirical Games of Market Entry and Spatial Competition in Retail Industries," CEPR Discussion Papers 10410, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Taisuke Otsu & Martin Pesendorfer & Yuya Takahashi, 2016. "Pooling data across markets in dynamic Markov games," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(2), pages 523-559, July.
    5. Otsu, Taisuke & Pesendorfer, Martin & Takahashi, Yuya, 2013. "Testing for Equilibrium Multiplicity in Dynamic Markov Games," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 423, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    6. Otsu, Taisuke & Pesendorfer, Martin & Takahashi, Yuya, 2013. "Testing for equilibrium multiplicity in dynamic Markov games," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101968, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Mitsukuni Nishida, 2015. "Estimating a Model of Strategic Network Choice: The Convenience-Store Industry in Okinawa," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(1), pages 20-38, January.
    8. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Nevo, Aviv, 2010. "Recent developments in empirical IO: dynamic demand and dynamic games," MPRA Paper 27814, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Przemysław Jeziorski, 2014. "Estimation of cost efficiencies from mergers: application to US radio," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 45(4), pages 816-846, December.
    10. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Mira, Pedro, 2010. "Dynamic discrete choice structural models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 38-67, May.
    11. Victor Aguirregabiria & Gustavo Vicentini, 2006. "Dynamic Spatial Competition Between Multi-Store Firms," Working Papers tecipa-253, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    12. Victor Aguirregabiria & Margaret Slade, 2017. "Empirical models of firms and industries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1445-1488, December.
    13. Steven T. Berry & Giovanni Compiani, 2020. "An Instrumental Variable Approach to Dynamic Models," NBER Working Papers 27756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Joao Macieira, 2010. "Oblivious Equilibrium in Dynamic Discrete Games," 2010 Meeting Papers 680, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Peter Arcidiacono & Patrick Bayer & Jason R. Blevins & Paul B. Ellickson, 2016. "Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models in Continuous Time with an Application to Retail Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 83(3), pages 889-931.
    16. Gallant, A. Ronald & Hong, Han & Khwaja, Ahmed, 2018. "A Bayesian approach to estimation of dynamic models with small and large number of heterogeneous players and latent serially correlated states," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(1), pages 19-32.
    17. Victor Aguirregabiria & Arvind Magesan, 2020. "Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Games When Players’ Beliefs Are Not in Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 87(2), pages 582-625.
    18. Panle Jia Barwick & Parag A. Pathak, 2015. "The costs of free entry: an empirical study of real estate agents in Greater Boston," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(1), pages 103-145, March.
    19. Victor Aguirregabiria & Gustavo Vicentini, 2016. "Dynamic Spatial Competition Between Multi-Store Retailers," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 710-754, December.
    20. Mitsukuni Nishida, 2018. "A Structural Analysis of Entry Order, Performance, and Geography: The Case of the Convenience-Store Industry in Japan," KIER Working Papers 993, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic discrete choice; Firm size spillovers; Industry dynamics; Learning-by-doing; Market Concentration; Merger analysis; Particle filter; Revenue regression; Serial correlation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • L81 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:net:wpaper:1408. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.NETinst.org/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nicholas Economides (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.NETinst.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.