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(Mis-)Predicted Subjective Well-Being Following Life Events

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  • Reto Odermatt
  • Alois Stutzer

Abstract

The correct prediction of how alternative states of the world affect our lives is a cornerstone of economics. We study how accurate people are in predicting their future well-being when facing major life events. Based on individual panel data, we compare people's forecast of their life satisfaction in five years' time to their actual realisations later on. This is done after the individuals experience widowhood, marriage, unemployment or disability. We find systematic prediction errors that are at least partly driven by unforeseen adaptation.

Suggested Citation

  • Reto Odermatt & Alois Stutzer, 2015. "(Mis-)Predicted Subjective Well-Being Following Life Events," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 787, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp787
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Adaptation; life satisfaction; life events; projection-bias; subjective well-being; utility prediction; unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D60 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - General
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

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