IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/25624.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Real Option Exercise: Empirical Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Décaire
  • Erik P. Gilje
  • Jérôme P. Taillard

Abstract

We study when and why firms exercise real options. Using detailed project-level investment data, we find that the likelihood that a firm exercises a real option is strongly related to peer exercise behavior. Peer exercise decisions are as important in explaining exercise behavior as variables commonly associated with standard real option theories, such as volatility. We identify peer effects using localized exogenous variation in peer project exercise decisions and find evidence consistent with information externalities being important for exercise behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Décaire & Erik P. Gilje & Jérôme P. Taillard, 2019. "Real Option Exercise: Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 25624, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25624
    Note: CF
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w25624.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
    2. Foucault, Thierry & Fresard, Laurent, 2014. "Learning from peers' stock prices and corporate investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 554-577.
    3. Grenadier, Steven R. & Wang, Neng, 2007. "Investment under uncertainty and time-inconsistent preferences," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 2-39, April.
    4. Foster, Andrew D & Rosenzweig, Mark R, 1995. "Learning by Doing and Learning from Others: Human Capital and Technical Change in Agriculture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1176-1209, December.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    6. James L. Paddock & Daniel R. Siegel & James L. Smith, 1988. "Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(3), pages 479-508.
    7. Alberto Moel, 2002. "When Are Real Options Exercised? An Empirical Study of Mine Closings," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 35-64, March.
    8. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-479, June.
    9. Gerard Hoberg & Gordon Phillips, 2016. "Text-Based Network Industries and Endogenous Product Differentiation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(5), pages 1423-1465.
    10. Timothy G. Conley & Christopher R. Udry, 2010. "Learning about a New Technology: Pineapple in Ghana," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 35-69, March.
    11. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 531-542.
    12. Grenadier, Steven R, 1999. "Information Revelation through Option Exercise," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 95-129.
    13. Andrey Stoyanov & Nikolay Zubanov, 2012. "Productivity Spillovers across Firms through Worker Mobility," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 168-198, April.
    14. Ryan Kellogg, 2014. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Evidence from Texas Oil Drilling," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1698-1734, June.
    15. Grenadier, Steven R. & Wang, Neng, 2005. "Investment timing, agency, and information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 493-533, March.
    16. Steven R. Grenadier, 2002. "Option Exercise Games: An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 691-721.
    17. Steven R. Grenadier & Andrey Malenko, 2011. "Real Options Signaling Games with Applications to Corporate Finance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(12), pages 3993-4036.
    18. Rebecca Achee Thornton & Peter Thompson, 2001. "Learning from Experience and Learning from Others: An Exploration of Learning and Spillovers in Wartime Shipbuilding," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1350-1368, December.
    19. Robert Novy-Marx, 2007. "An Equilibrium Model of Investment Under Uncertainty," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1461-1502, 2007 29.
    20. Mark T. Leary & Michael R. Roberts, 2014. "Do Peer Firms Affect Corporate Financial Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 139-178, February.
    21. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    22. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. "The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-1679, December.
    23. Erik P. Gilje & Jerome P. Taillard, 2016. "Do Private Firms Invest Differently than Public Firms? Taking Cues from the Natural Gas Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(4), pages 1733-1778, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. M. Cecilia Bustamante & Laurent Frésard, 2021. "Does Firm Investment Respond to Peers’ Investment?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 4703-4724, August.
    2. Adam Bordeman & Bharadwaj Kannan & Roberto Pinheiro, 2021. "Rival Growth Prospects and Equity Prices: Evidence from Mass Layoff Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(8), pages 1969-1997, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lambrecht, Bart M., 2017. "Real options in finance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 166-171.
    2. Ryan Kellogg, 2014. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Evidence from Texas Oil Drilling," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1698-1734, June.
    3. M. Cecilia Bustamante & Laurent Frésard, 2021. "Does Firm Investment Respond to Peers’ Investment?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 4703-4724, August.
    4. Jianjun Miao & Neng Wang, 2004. "Investment, Hedging, and Consumption Smoothing," Finance 0407014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bulan, Laarni T., 2005. "Real options, irreversible investment and firm uncertainty: New evidence from U.S. firms," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 255-279.
    6. Bulan, Laarni & Mayer, Christopher & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2009. "Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: Evidence from real estate development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 237-251, May.
    7. Bolton, Patrick & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2019. "Investment under uncertainty with financial constraints," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    8. Im, Hyun Joong & Liu, Jia & Park, Young Joon, 2021. "Policy uncertainty and peer effects: Evidence from corporate investment in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Laarni T. Bulan, 2005. "Real options, irreversible investment and firm uncertainty: New evidence from U.S. firms," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(3-4), pages 255-279.
    10. Hsu, Yuan-Teng & Huang, Chia-Wei & Koedijk, Kees G., 2023. "Unintended consequences of compensation peer groups on corporate innovation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    11. Liu, Yongda & Padgett, Carol & Yin, Chao, 2022. "Internal information quality and financial policy peer effects," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, 2020. "OPCIONES REALES Una guía teórico-práctica para la valoración de inversiones bajo incertidumbre mediante modelos en tiempo discreto y simulación de Monte Carlo," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, number 138, April.
    13. Grennan, Jillian, 2019. "Dividend payments as a response to peer influence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(3), pages 549-570.
    14. Feng, Yao, 2011. "Local spillovers and learning from neighbors: Evidence from durable adoptions in rural China," MPRA Paper 33924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Neng, 2007. "Investment, consumption, and hedging under incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 608-642, December.
    16. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    17. Adhikari, Binay K. & Agrawal, Anup, 2018. "Peer influence on payout policies," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 615-637.
    18. Oriana Bandiera & Imran Rasul, 2006. "Social Networks and Technology Adoption in Northern Mozambique," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(514), pages 869-902, October.
    19. Ma, Xingliang & Shi, Guanming, 2011. "A Dynamic Adoption Model with Bayesian Learning: Application to the U.S. Soybean Market," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 104577, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Kaustia, Markku & Rantala, Ville, 2015. "Social learning and corporate peer effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 653-669.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25624. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.