Uncertainty in fertility intentions in Britain, 1979-2007
The paper uses a time series of repeated rounds of the General Household Survey in Great Britain to study uncertainty in fertility intentions. We show that a substantial minority of women are uncertain in their expectations about future childbearing. A comparison of reported uncertainty in GHS rounds 1979-1990 with 1991-2007 reveals that the estimated level of uncertainty is influenced by question format. At the individual level, uncertainty varies largely with demographic status and life stage-age, partnership status, parity and time since previous birth. Evidence from qualitative and quantitative studies, particularly in relation to pregnancy intentions, reinforces the reality of uncertainty about reproductive prospects. We suggest that the measurement of fertility intentions needs improvement. A new theoretical approach to fertility intentions is outlined in brief.
Volume (Year): 9 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Bongaarts, 2002. "The End of the Fertility Transition in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(3), pages 419-443.
- Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1.
- Kendall, Carl & Afable-Munsuz, Aimee & Speizer, Ilene & Avery, Alexis & Schmidt, Norine & Santelli, John, 2005. "Understanding pregnancy in a population of inner-city women in New Orleans--results of qualitative research," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 297-311, January.
- Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, 09.
- Ajzen, Icek, 1991. "The theory of planned behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 179-211, December.
- Laurent Toulemon & Maria Rita Testa, 2006. "Family Formation in France: Individual Preferences and Subsequent Outcomes," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 41-75.
- Dylan Kneale & Heather Joshi, 2008. "Postponement and childlessness - Evidence from two British cohorts," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(58), pages 1935-1968, November.
- Ronald Freedman & Deborah Freedman & Arland Thornton, 1980. "Changes in fertility expectations and preferences between 1962 and 1977: Their relation to final parity," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 17(4), pages 365-378, November.
- S. Morgan, 1985. "Individual and couple intentions for more children: A research note," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 22(1), pages 125-132, February.
- S. Morgan, 1982. "Parity-specific fertility intentions and uncertainty: the United States, 1970 to 1976," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 19(3), pages 315-334, August.
- Elizabeth Thomson, 1997. "Couple childbearing desires, intentions, and births," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 34(3), pages 343-354, August.
- Adeline Delavande, 2008.
"Measuring revisions to subjective expectations,"
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,
Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 43-82, February.
- Adeline Delavande, 2005. "Measuring Revisions to Subjective Expectations," 2005 Meeting Papers 682, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Kellie J. Hagewen & S. Philip Morgan, 2005. "Intended and Ideal Family Size in the United States, 1970-2002," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 31(3), pages 507-527.
- Christine A. Bachrach & Philip S. Morgan, 2011. "DEMOGRAPHIC DEBATE - Is the Theory of Planned Behaviour an appropriate model for human fertility?," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 11-18.
- Elizabeth Thomson & Jan Hoem, 1998. "Couple childbearing plans and births in Sweden," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 35(3), pages 315-322, August.
- Cartwright, Ann, 1988. "Unintended pregnancies that lead to babies," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 249-254, January.
- Morgan, S. Philip & Chen, Renbao, 1992. "Predicting childlessness for recent cohorts of American women," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 477-493, November. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:9:y:2011:i:1:p:99-129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Frank Kolesnik)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.