IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reecon/v78y2024i4s1090944324000504.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayesian probability revision and infection prevention behavior in Japan: A quantitative analysis of the first wave of COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Kinoshita, Shin
  • Sato, Masayuki
  • Ida, Takanori

Abstract

The relationship between cognitive biases and infection prevention behavior remains unexplored in the existing literature. This study uses data from a questionnaire survey conducted in Japan on the first wave of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) from February to May 2020 to empirically investigate the impact of Bayesian probability inference, the influence of cognitive biases of PCR test results on infection prevention behavior, and the discrepancy between infection prevention intentions and behaviors. We used a bivariate ordinal probit model when considering the correlation between behaviors. The results showed that the higher probability responses, implying pessimistic biases, were more likely to indicate that declaring a state of emergency was necessary and effective, and were more health-oriented in ensuring infection prevention behavior even at the expense of the economy. However, the study found that although they wanted to reduce the frequency of their outings and the number of people they met, they did not reduce them in terms of actual behavior change. It also found that those with pessimistic biases had a higher WTP for the vaccine.

Suggested Citation

  • Kinoshita, Shin & Sato, Masayuki & Ida, Takanori, 2024. "Bayesian probability revision and infection prevention behavior in Japan: A quantitative analysis of the first wave of COVID-19," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(4).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:78:y:2024:i:4:s1090944324000504
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.100986
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1090944324000504
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rie.2024.100986?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Manski, Charles F. & Molinari, Francesca, 2021. "Estimating the COVID-19 infection rate: Anatomy of an inference problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 181-192.
    2. Ying Fan & A. Yeşim Orhun & Dana Turjeman, 2020. "Heterogeneous Actions, Beliefs, Constraints and Risk Tolerance During the COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 27211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Campos-Mercade, Pol & Meier, Armando N. & Schneider, Florian H. & Wengström, Erik, 2021. "Prosociality predicts health behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    4. Sasaki, Shusaku & Saito, Tomoya & Ohtake, Fumio, 2022. "Nudges for COVID-19 voluntary vaccination: How to explain peer information?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    5. Sarah Dryhurst & Claudia R. Schneider & John Kerr & Alexandra L. J. Freeman & Gabriel Recchia & Anne Marthe van der Bles & David Spiegelhalter & Sander van der Linden, 2020. "Risk perceptions of COVID-19 around the world," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(7-8), pages 994-1006, August.
    6. Jesper Akesson & Sam Ashworth-Hayes & Robert Hahn & Robert Metcalfe & Itzhak Rasooly, 2022. "Fatalism, beliefs, and behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 147-190, April.
    7. James H. Stock, 2020. "Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Coronavirus," NBER Working Papers 26902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Latkin, Carl A. & Dayton, Lauren & Yi, Grace & Konstantopoulos, Arianna & Boodram, Basmattee, 2021. "Trust in a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S.: A social-ecological perspective," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    9. John M. Barrios & Yael Hochberg, 2020. "Risk Perception Through the Lens of Politics in the Time of the COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 27008, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. David M. Grether, 1980. "Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 95(3), pages 537-557.
    11. Pedro Bordalo & Katherine B. Coffman & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2020. "Older People are Less Pessimistic about the Health Risks of Covid-19," NBER Working Papers 27494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Stephen M. Utych & Luke Fowler, 2020. "Age-based messaging strategies for communication about COVID-19," Journal of Behavioral Public Administration, Center for Experimental and Behavioral Public Administration, vol. 3(1).
    13. Macchi, Laura, 2000. "Partitive Formulation of Information in Probabilistic Problems: Beyond Heuristics and Frequency Format Explanations," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 217-236, July.
    14. Cass R. Sunstein & Richard H. Thaler, 2003. "Libertarian paternalism is not an oxymoron," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 48(Jun).
    15. Liliana Cori & Fabrizio Bianchi & Ennio Cadum & Carmen Anthonj, 2020. "Risk Perception and COVID-19," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-6, April.
    16. J. S. Butler & Patrali Chatterjee, 1997. "Tests of the Specification of Univariate and Bivariate Ordered Probit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 343-347, May.
    17. Shusaku Sasaki & Hirofumi Kurokawa & Fumio Ohtake, 2021. "Effective but fragile? Responses to repeated nudge-based messages for preventing the spread of COVID-19 infection," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 371-408, July.
    18. Yoshihiko Kadoya & Somtip Watanapongvanich & Pattaphol Yuktadatta & Pongpat Putthinun & Stella T. Lartey & Mostafa Saidur Rahim Khan, 2021. "Willing or Hesitant? A Socioeconomic Study on the Potential Acceptance of COVID-19 Vaccine in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-18, May.
    19. Andrey Simonov & Szymon Sacher & Jean-Pierre Dube & Shirsho Biswas, 2020. "The Persuasive Effect of Fox News: Non-Compliance with Social Distancing During the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 2020-67, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    20. Arcadio A. Cerda & Leidy Y. García, 2021. "Willingness to Pay for a COVID-19 Vaccine," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 343-351, May.
    21. Sloman, Steven A. & Over, David & Slovak, Lila & Stibel, Jeffrey M., 2003. "Frequency illusions and other fallacies," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 296-309, July.
    22. Müller, Stephan & Rau, Holger A., 2021. "Economic preferences and compliance in the social stress test of the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    23. Mostafa Saidur Rahim Khan & Somtip Watanapongvanich & Yoshihiko Kadoya, 2021. "COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy among the Younger Generation in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-17, November.
    24. M. Kate Bundorf & Jill DeMatteis & Grant Miller & Maria Polyakova & Jialu L. Streeter & Jonathan Wivagg, 2021. "Risk Perceptions and Protective Behaviors: Evidence from COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 28741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shin KINOSHITA & Masayuki SATO & Takanori IDA, 2022. "Bayesian Probability Revision and Infection Prevention Behavior in Japan : A Quantitative Analysis of the First Wave of COVID-19," Discussion papers e-22-004, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    2. Masayuki SATO & Shin KINOSHITA & Takanori IDA, 2022. "Subjective Risk Valuation and Behavioral Change : Evidence from COVID-19 in the U.K. and Japan," Discussion papers e-22-011, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    3. Ori Heffetz & Guy Ishai, 2021. "Which Beliefs? Behavior-Predictive Beliefs are Inconsistent with Information-Based Beliefs: Evidence from COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 29452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Nicholas W. Papageorge & Matthew V. Zahn & Michèle Belot & Eline Broek-Altenburg & Syngjoo Choi & Julian C. Jamison & Egon Tripodi, 2021. "Socio-demographic factors associated with self-protecting behavior during the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 691-738, April.
    5. Andersson, Ola & Campos-Mercade, Pol & Meier, Armando N. & Wengström, Erik, 2021. "Anticipation of COVID-19 vaccines reduces willingness to socially distance," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Grimalda, Gianluca & Murtin, Fabrice & Pipke, David & Putterman, Louis & Sutter, Matthias, 2023. "The politicized pandemic: Ideological polarization and the behavioral response to COVID-19," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    7. M. Kate Bundorf & Jill DeMatteis & Grant Miller & Maria Polyakova & Jialu L. Streeter & Jonathan Wivagg, 2021. "Risk Perceptions and Protective Behaviors: Evidence from COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 28741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    9. Fuest, Clemens & Immel, Lea & Neumeier, Florian & Peichl, Andreas, 2023. "Does expert information affect citizens’ attitudes toward Corona policies? Evidence from Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Masashige Hamano & Munechika Katayama & So Kubota, 2020. "COVID-19 Misperception and Macroeconomy," Working Papers 2016, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    11. Gutierrez, Emilio & Rubli, Adrian & Tavares, Tiago, 2022. "Information and behavioral responses during a pandemic: Evidence from delays in Covid-19 death reports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    12. Maxim Ananyev & Michael Poyker & Yuan Tian, 2021. "The safest time to fly: pandemic response in the era of Fox News," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(3), pages 775-802, July.
    13. Jan-Emmanuel De Neve & Daisy Fancourt & Christian Krekel & Sarah Swanke, 2020. "Are happier people more compliant? Global evidence from three large-scale surveys during Covid-19 lockdowns," CEP Occasional Papers 54, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    14. Michael Barnett & Greg Buchak & Constantine Yannelis, 2023. "Epidemic responses under uncertainty," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 120(2), pages 2208111120-, January.
    15. Rehse, Dominik & Tremöhlen, Felix, 2020. "Fostering participation in digital public health interventions: The case of digital contact tracing," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-076, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    16. Shusaku Sasaki & Tomoya Saito & Fumio Ohtake, 2021. "The Resilience of FDI to Natural Disasters through Industrial Linkages," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 21-07, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    17. Ester Faia & Andreas Fuster & Vincenzo Pezone & Basit Zafar, 2024. "Biases in Information Selection and Processing: Survey Evidence from the Pandemic," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 829-847, May.
    18. Allcott, Hunt & Boxell, Levi & Conway, Jacob & Gentzkow, Matthew & Thaler, Michael & Yang, David, 2020. "Polarization and public health: Partisan differences in social distancing during the coronavirus pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    19. Abel, Martin & Byker, Tanya & Carpenter, Jeffrey, 2021. "Socially optimal mistakes? debiasing COVID-19 mortality risk perceptions and prosocial behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 456-480.
    20. van Doren, Taylor P. & Brown, Ryan A. & Izenberg, Max & Simmons, Callie & Heintz, Ron & Busch, Lisa, 2024. "Risk perception and reappraisal during the COVID-19 pandemic in southeast Alaska: Self-identified determinants of risk and protective health behaviors," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 361(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Bayesian inference; Cognitive biases; Bivariate ordinal probit model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:78:y:2024:i:4:s1090944324000504. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622941 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.