IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-00642699.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial and Economic Determinants of Firm Default

Author

Listed:
  • Giulio Bottazzi

    (LEM - Laboratory of Economics and Management - SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa])

  • Marco Grazzi

    (LEM - Laboratory of Economics and Management - SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa])

  • Angelo Secchi

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Federico Tamagni

    (LEM - Laboratory of Economics and Management - SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa])

Abstract

This paper investigates the relevance of financial and economic variables as determinants of firm default. Our analysis cover a large sample of medium-sized limited liability firms. Since default might lead, through bankruptcy or radical restructuring, to firm's exit, our work also relates with previous contributions on industrial demography. Using non parametric tests we assess to what extent defaulting firms differ from the non-defaulting group. Bootstrap probit regressions confirm that economic variables, in addition to standard financial indicators, play both a long and short term effect. Our findings are robust with respect to the inclusion of Distance to Default and risk ratings among the regressors.

Suggested Citation

  • Giulio Bottazzi & Marco Grazzi & Angelo Secchi & Federico Tamagni, 2011. "Financial and Economic Determinants of Firm Default," Post-Print hal-00642699, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00642699
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00642699
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-00642699/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Imbens, Guido W, 1992. "An Efficient Method of Moments Estimator for Discrete Choice Models with Choice-Based Sampling," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1187-1214, September.
    2. Martha A. Schary, 1991. "The Probability of Exit," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 22(3), pages 339-353, Autumn.
    3. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
    4. Gilson, Stuart C, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Capital Structure Choice: Evidence from Financially Distressed Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 161-196, March.
    5. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2001. "Prototype risk rating system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 47-95, January.
    6. Cosci, Stefania & Meliciani, Valentina, 2002. "Multiple Banking Relationships: Evidence from the Italian Experience," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(0), pages 37-54, Supplemen.
    7. Foglia, A. & Laviola, S. & Marullo Reedtz, P., 1998. "Multiple banking relationships and the fragility of corporate borrowers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(10-11), pages 1441-1456, October.
    8. Richard Ericson & Ariel Pakes, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82.
    9. Shrieves, Ronald E. & Stevens, Donald L., 1979. "Bankruptcy Avoidance as a Motive For Merger," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 501-515, September.
    10. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    11. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Amparo Sanchis-Llopis & Juan Sanchis-Llopis, 2010. "A competing risks analysis of firms’ exit," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 281-304, April.
    12. Giulio Bottazzi & Federico Tamagni, 2011. "Big and fragile: when size does not shield from default," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(14), pages 1401-1404.
    13. Timothy Dunne & Mark J. Roberts & Larry Samuelson, 1988. "Patterns of Firm Entry and Exit in U.S. Manufacturing Industries," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(4), pages 495-515, Winter.
    14. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    15. Grunert, Jens & Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2005. "The role of non-financial factors in internal credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 509-531, February.
    16. Audretsch, David B. & Santarelli, Enrico & Vivarelli, Marco, 1999. "Start-up size and industrial dynamics: some evidence from Italian manufacturing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 17(7), pages 965-983, October.
    17. Rajshree Agarwal & David B. Audretsch, 2001. "Does Entry Size Matter? The Impact of the Life Cycle and Technology on Firm Survival," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 21-43, March.
    18. Giulio Bottazzi & Angelo Secchi & Federico Tamagni, 2008. "Productivity, profitability and financial performance," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 711-751, August.
    19. Mata, Jose & Portugal, Pedro, 1994. "Life Duration of New Firms," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 227-245, September.
    20. Ongena, Steven & Smith, David C., 2000. "What Determines the Number of Bank Relationships? Cross-Country Evidence," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 26-56, January.
    21. Carey, Mark & Hrycay, Mark, 2001. "Parameterizing credit risk models with rating data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 197-270, January.
    22. Richard Disney & Jonathan Haskel & Ylva Heden, 2003. "Entry, Exit and Establishment Survival in UK Manufacturing," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 91-112, March.
    23. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    24. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-670, May.
    25. Cefis, E. & Marsili, O., 2007. "Going, Going, Gone. Innovation and Exit in Manufacturing Firms," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-015-ORG, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    26. Sidney G. Winter, 1971. "Satisficing, Selection, and the Innovating Remnant," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(2), pages 237-261.
    27. Agarwal, Rajshree & Gort, Michael, 1996. "The Evolution of Markets and Entry, Exit and Survival of Firms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 489-498, August.
    28. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    29. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    30. Honjo, Yuji, 2000. "Business failure of new firms: an empirical analysis using a multiplicative hazards model," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 557-574, May.
    31. Manski, Charles F & Lerman, Steven R, 1977. "The Estimation of Choice Probabilities from Choice Based Samples," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(8), pages 1977-1988, November.
    32. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
    33. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
    34. Gilson, Stuart C. & John, Kose & Lang, Larry H. P., 1990. "Troubled debt restructurings*1: An empirical study of private reorganization of firms in default," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 315-353, October.
    35. Stefania Cosci & Valentina Meliciani, 2002. "Multiple Banking Relationships: Evidence from the Italian Experience," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(S1), pages 37-54.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giulio Bottazzi & Marco Grazzi & Angelo Secchi & Federico Tamagni, 2011. "Financial and economic determinants of firm default," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 373-406, August.
    2. Giulio Bottazzi & Federico Tamagni, 2010. "Is Bigger Always Better ? The Effect of Size on Defaults," LEM Papers Series 2010/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Amparo Sanchis-Llopis & Juan Sanchis-Llopis, 2010. "A competing risks analysis of firms’ exit," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 281-304, April.
    4. Ugur, Mehmet & Trushin, Eshref & Solomon, Edna, 2015. "Inverted-U relationship between innovation and survival: Evidence from firm-level UK data," MPRA Paper 68010, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Nov 2015.
    5. Stefan Szymanski, 2017. "Entry into exit: insolvency in English professional football," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 64(4), pages 419-444, September.
    6. Jens Hilscher & Mungo Wilson, 2011. "Credit ratings and credit risk," Working Papers 31, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    7. Jens Hilscher & Mungo Wilson, 2017. "Credit Ratings and Credit Risk: Is One Measure Enough?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(10), pages 3414-3437, October.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6127 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Carla Daniela Calá & Miguel Manjón-Antolín & Josep-Maria Arauzo-Carod, 2017. "Regional Determinants of Exit Across Firms’ Size: Evidence from Argentina," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 108(6), pages 768-785, December.
    10. Rosanna Pittiglio & Filippo Reganati, 2015. "Multinational Enterprises, Technological Intensity and Firm Survival. Evidence from Italian Manufacturing and Services Firms," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 87-106, March.
    11. Roberto Fontana & Lionel Nesta, 2007. "Entry, Innovation and Exit from LAN Switch Industry," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-00973045, HAL.
    12. Dimara, Efthalia & Skuras, Dimitris & Tsekouras, Kostas & Tzelepis, Dimitris, 2008. "Productive efficiency and firm exit in the food sector," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 185-196, April.
    13. Mohd Irfan, 2012. "Determinants of Firms’ Liquidation and Acquisition in the Indian Electronics Industry," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 6(1), pages 75-90, February.
    14. Calá, Carla Daniela & Manjón-Antolín, Miguel & Arauzo-Carod, Josep-Maria, 2017. "Regional determinants of exit across firms' size: evidence from a developing country," Nülan. Deposited Documents 2548, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Centro de Documentación.
    15. Ioannis Asimakopoulos & Dionysis Lalountas & Costas Siriopoulos, 2008. "The determinants for the survival of firms in the Athens Exchange," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 31, pages 07-30, November.
    16. Steffen Mueller & Jens Stegmaier, 2015. "Economic failure and the role of plant age and size," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 621-638, March.
    17. Ahsan Habib & Mabel D' Costa & Hedy Jiaying Huang & Md. Borhan Uddin Bhuiyan & Li Sun, 2020. "Determinants and consequences of financial distress: review of the empirical literature," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(S1), pages 1023-1075, April.
    18. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
    19. Sigrist, Fabio & Leuenberger, Nicola, 2023. "Machine learning for corporate default risk: Multi-period prediction, frailty correlation, loan portfolios, and tail probabilities," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(3), pages 1390-1406.
    20. Tor Jacobson & Jesper Lindé & Kasper Roszbach, 2013. "Firm Default And Aggregate Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 945-972, August.
    21. Roberto Fontana & Lionel Nesta, 2009. "Product Innovation and Survival in a High-Tech Industry," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 34(4), pages 287-306, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    firm;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D20 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - General
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00642699. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.