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Financial and Economic Determinants of Firm Default


  • Giulio Bottazzi

    () (LEM - Laboratory of Economics and Management - Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies)

  • Marco Grazzi

    (LEM - Laboratory of Economics and Management - Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies)

  • Angelo Secchi

    () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Federico Tamagni

    (LEM - Laboratory of Economics and Management - Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies)


This paper investigates the relevance of financial and economic variables as determinants of firm default. Our analysis cover a large sample of medium-sized limited liability firms. Since default might lead, through bankruptcy or radical restructuring, to firm's exit, our work also relates with previous contributions on industrial demography. Using non parametric tests we assess to what extent defaulting firms differ from the non-defaulting group. Bootstrap probit regressions confirm that economic variables, in addition to standard financial indicators, play both a long and short term effect. Our findings are robust with respect to the inclusion of Distance to Default and risk ratings among the regressors.

Suggested Citation

  • Giulio Bottazzi & Marco Grazzi & Angelo Secchi & Federico Tamagni, 2011. "Financial and Economic Determinants of Firm Default," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00642699, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-00642699
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Angelo Secchi & Federico Tamagni & Chiara Tomasi, 2011. "Exporting under financial constraints: margins, switching dynamics and prices," LEM Papers Series 2011/24, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Carlo Milana & Leopoldo Nascia & Alessandro Zeli, 2013. "Decomposing multifactor productivity in Italy from 1998 to 2004: evidence from large firms and SMEs using DEA," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 99-109, August.
    3. M. Grazzi & C. Piccardo & C. Vergari, 2017. "Building a firm level dataset for the analysis of industrial dynamics and demography," Working Papers wp2003, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    4. Natasa Golo & Guy Kelman & David S. Bree & Leanne Usher & Marco Lamieri & Sorin Solomon, 2015. "Many-to-one contagion of economic growth rate across trade credit network of firms," Papers 1506.01734,
    5. Giovanni Dosi & Marco Grazzi & Chiara Tomasi & Alessandro Zeli, 2010. "Turbulence underneath the big calm? Exploring the micro-evidence behind the flat trend of manufacturing productivity in Italy," LEM Papers Series 2010/03, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    6. Guimarães Barbosa, Evaldo, 2016. "The relationships between, on the hand, size, growth and age of the firm and, on the other hand, small business survival – a constructive critique and a proposal of a new framework," MPRA Paper 72111, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Giorgio Barba Navaretti & Davide Castellani & Fabio Pieri, 2014. "Age and firm growth: evidence from three European countries," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 823-837, December.
    8. F. G. Santeramo & B. K. Goodwin & F. Adinolfi & F. Capitanio, 2016. "Farmer Participation, Entry and Exit Decisions in the Italian Crop Insurance Programme," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 639-657, September.
    9. Adalgiso Amendola & Anna Maria Ferragina & Rosanna Pittiglio & Filippo Reganati, 2012. "Are exporters and multinational firms more resilient over a crisis? First evidence for manufacturing enterprises in Italy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 1914-1926.
    10. repec:bla:presci:v:96:y:2017:i:1:p:33-59 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. FERRAGINA, Anna Maria, 2013. "The Impact of FDI on Firm Survival and Employment: A Comparative Analysis for Turkey and Italy," CELPE Discussion Papers 127, CELPE - Centre of Labour Economics and Economic Policy, University of Salerno, Italy.
    12. Guimarães Barbosa, Evaldo, 2016. "Determinants of Small Business Survival: The Case of Very Small Enterprises of the Traditional Manufacturing Sectors in Brazil," MPRA Paper 72304, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Giulio Bottazzi & Marco Grazzi, 2014. "Dynamics Of Productivity And Cost Of Labour In Italian Manufacturing Firms," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(S1), pages 55-73, December.
    14. Ferragina, Anna & Pittiglio, Rosanna & Reganati, Filippo, 2012. "Multinational status and firm exit in the Italian manufacturing and service sectors," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 363-372.
    15. Giovanni Dosi & Valérie Revest & Alessandro Sapio, 2016. "Financial regimes, financialization patterns and industrial performances : preliminary remarks," Post-Print halshs-01418040, HAL.
    16. Tamminen, Saara & van den Berg, Marcel & van Marrewijk, Charles, 2016. "Trade, Productivity and Profits: On Profit levels and Profit margins," Working Papers 80, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    17. Annalisa Croce & Diego D’Adda & Elisa Ughetto, 2015. "Venture capital financing and the financial distress risk of portfolio firms: How independent and bank-affiliated investors differ," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 189-206, January.
    18. Molinari, Massimo, 2013. "Joint analysis of the non-linear debt–growth nexus and cash-flow sensitivity: New evidence from Italy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 34-44.
    19. Alessandro Zeli, 2014. "The financial distress indicators trend in Italy: an analysis of medium-size enterprises," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 4(2), pages 199-221, December.
    20. Giulio Bottazzi & Federico Tamagni, 2011. "Big and fragile: when size does not shield from default," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(14), pages 1401-1404.
    21. Fejér-Király Gergely, 2015. "Bankruptcy Prediction: A Survey on Evolution, Critiques, and Solutions," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, De Gruyter Open, vol. 3(1), pages 93-108, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D20 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - General
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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