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Partial Distributional Policy Effects

  • Rothe, Christoph


    (Columbia University)

In this paper, we propose a method to evaluate the effect of a counterfactual change in the unconditional distribution of a single covariate on the unconditional distribution of an outcome variable of interest. Both fixed and infinitesimal changes are considered. We show that such effects are point identified under general conditions if the covariate affected by the counterfactual change is continuously distributed, but are typically only partially identified if its distribution is discrete. For the latter case, we derive informative bounds making use of the available information. We also discuss estimation and inference.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 6076.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: Econometrica, 2012, 80 (5), 2269-2301
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6076
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  1. José Mata & José A. F. Machado, 2005. "Counterfactual decomposition of changes in wage distributions using quantile regression," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 445-465.
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  9. Pedro Carneiro & James Heckman & Edward Vytlacil, 2009. "Evaluating marginal policy changes and the average effect of treatment for individuals at the margin," CeMMAP working papers CWP21/09, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  10. Jörg Stoye, 2008. "More on confidence intervals for partially identified parameters," CeMMAP working papers CWP11/08, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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  12. Victor Chernozhukov & Ivan Fernandez-Val & Blaise Melly, 2012. "Inference on counterfactual distributions," CeMMAP working papers CWP05/12, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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