IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pubeco/v234y2024ics0047272724000677.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Local minimum wage laws, boundary discontinuity methods, and policy spillovers

Author

Listed:
  • Jardim, Ekaterina
  • Long, Mark C.
  • Plotnick, Robert
  • Vigdor, Jacob
  • Wiles, Emma

Abstract

We use geographically precise longitudinal employment data documenting worker job-to-job mobility to study policy spillovers in the context of three local minimum wage increases. Estimated spillover impacts on wages and hours are statistically significant, geographically diffuse, and sufficient to create concern regarding interpretation of results even using not-immediately-adjacent regions as controls. Spillover effects appear less concerning with smaller interventions or those adopted in smaller jurisdictions. The boundary discontinuity method of causal inference may yield misleading results if a policy’s impacts do not stop at the border of the implementing jurisdiction.

Suggested Citation

  • Jardim, Ekaterina & Long, Mark C. & Plotnick, Robert & Vigdor, Jacob & Wiles, Emma, 2024. "Local minimum wage laws, boundary discontinuity methods, and policy spillovers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:234:y:2024:i:c:s0047272724000677
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105131
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272724000677
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105131?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Perez Perez, Jorge, 2020. "City Minimum Wages and Spatial Equilibrium Effects," SocArXiv fpx9e, Center for Open Science.
    2. Paul Beaudry & David A. Green & Ben M. Sand, 2018. "In Search of Labor Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2714-2757, September.
    3. Keele, Luke J. & Titiunik, Rocío, 2015. "Geographic Boundaries as Regression Discontinuities," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 127-155, January.
    4. Rebecca Diamond & Tim McQuade, 2019. "Who Wants Affordable Housing in Their Backyard? An Equilibrium Analysis of Low-Income Property Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1063-1117.
    5. Sandra E. Black, 1999. "Do Better Schools Matter? Parental Valuation of Elementary Education," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(2), pages 577-599.
    6. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1994. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 772-793, September.
    7. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Francesco Trebbi, 2015. "Foreclosures, House Prices, and the Real Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(6), pages 2587-2634, December.
    8. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 531-542.
    9. Gilles Duranton & Laurent Gobillon & Henry G. Overman, 2011. "Assessing the Effects of Local Taxation using Microgeographic Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 1017-1046, September.
    10. Steven Dieterle & Otávio Bartalotti & Quentin Brummet, 2020. "Revisiting the Effects of Unemployment Insurance Extensions on Unemployment: A Measurement-Error-Corrected Regression Discontinuity Approach," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 84-114, May.
    11. Joan Monras, 2019. "Minimum Wages and Spatial Equilibrium: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(3), pages 853-904.
    12. Alan Manning & Barbara Petrongolo, 2017. "How Local Are Labor Markets? Evidence from a Spatial Job Search Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 2877-2907, October.
    13. Luke Keele & Rocío Titiunik, 2018. "Geographic Natural Experiments with Interference: The Effect of All-Mail Voting on Turnout in Colorado," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 64(2), pages 127-149.
    14. Stephanie Riegg Cellini & Fernando Ferreira & Jesse Rothstein, 2010. "The Value of School Facility Investments: Evidence from a Dynamic Regression Discontinuity Design," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 215-261.
    15. Barry T. Hirsch & Bruce E. Kaufman & Tetyana Zelenska, 2015. "Minimum Wage Channels of Adjustment," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 199-239, April.
    16. Elliot Anenberg & Edward Kung, 2014. "Estimates of the Size and Source of Price Declines Due to Nearby Foreclosures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2527-2551, August.
    17. Mincer, Jacob, 1976. "Unemployment Effects of Minimum Wages," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(4), pages 87-104, August.
    18. Jeffrey Clemens, 2021. "How Do Firms Respond to Minimum Wage Increases? Understanding the Relevance of Non-employment Margins," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
    19. Simon, Andrew & Wilson, Matthew, 2021. "Optimal minimum wage setting in a federal system," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    20. Leigh Linden & Jonah E. Rockoff, 2008. "Estimates of the Impact of Crime Risk on Property Values from Megan's Laws," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 1103-1127, June.
    21. Neumark, David & Kolko, Jed, 2010. "Do enterprise zones create jobs? Evidence from California's enterprise zone program," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 1-19, July.
    22. Ekaterina Jardim & Emma van Inwegen, 2019. "Payroll, Revenue, and Labor Demand Effects of the Minimum Wage," Upjohn Working Papers 19-298, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    23. Jonathon Hazell & Christina Patterson & Heather Sarsons & Bledi Taska, 2022. "National Wage Setting," NBER Working Papers 30623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Parag Pathak, 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2108-2131, August.
    25. Doruk Cengiz & Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner & Ben Zipperer, 2019. "The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1405-1454.
    26. Clemens, Jeffrey & Wither, Michael, 2019. "The minimum wage and the Great Recession: Evidence of effects on the employment and income trajectories of low-skilled workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 53-67.
    27. Jushan Bai, 2009. "Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1229-1279, July.
    28. Matthew A. Turner & Andrew Haughwout & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2014. "Land Use Regulation and Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1341-1403, July.
    29. Jeffrey Clemens & Lisa B. Kahn & Jonathan Meer, 2021. "Dropouts Need Not Apply? The Minimum Wage and Skill Upgrading," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(S1), pages 107-149.
    30. Thomas J. Holmes, 1998. "The Effect of State Policies on the Location of Manufacturing: Evidence from State Borders," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(4), pages 667-705, August.
    31. Karen M. Pence, 2006. "Foreclosing on Opportunity: State Laws and Mortgage Credit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 177-182, February.
    32. Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2022. "When the minimum wage really bites hard: The negative spillover effect on high-skilled workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    33. McKinnish, Terra, 2017. "Cross-state differences in the minimum wage and out-of-state commuting by low-wage workers," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 137-147.
    34. Arindrajit Dube & T. William Lester & Michael Reich, 2010. "Minimum Wage Effects Across State Borders: Estimates Using Contiguous Counties," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 945-964, November.
    35. Ekaterina Jardim & Mark C. Long & Robert Plotnick & Emma van Inwegen & Jacob Vigdor & Hilary Wething, 2022. "Minimum-Wage Increases and Low-Wage Employment: Evidence from Seattle," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 263-314, May.
    36. Dharmasankar, Sharada & Yoo, Hoyoung, 2023. "Assessing the main and spillover effects of Seattle's minimum wage on establishment decisions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    37. Brian J. Phelan, 2019. "Hedonic-Based Labor Supply Substitution and the Ripple Effect of Minimum Wages," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(3), pages 905-947.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner, 2024. "Minimum Wages in the 21st Century," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2524, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    2. Dharmasankar, Sharada & Yoo, Hoyoung, 2023. "Assessing the main and spillover effects of Seattle's minimum wage on establishment decisions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    3. David Neumark & Peter Shirley, 2022. "Myth or measurement: What does the new minimum wage research say about minimum wages and job loss in the United States?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 384-417, October.
    4. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.
    5. Ranjan, Priya & Neumark, David & Rodriguez-Lopez, Antonio, 2022. "What's across the Border? Re-Evaluating the Cross-Border Evidence on Minimum Wage Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 15282, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Winters, John V., 2022. "Minimum Wages and Restaurant Employment for Teens and Adults in Metropolitan and Non-metropolitan Areas," IZA Discussion Papers 15499, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Loukas Karabarbounis & Jeremy Lise & Anusha Nath, 2022. "Minimum Wages and Labor Markets in the Twin Cities," Working Papers 793, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    8. Yamagishi, Atsushi, 2021. "Minimum wages and housing rents: Theory and evidence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Gavoille, Nicolas & Zasova, Anna, 2023. "What we pay in the shadows: Labor tax evasion, minimum wage hike and employment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    10. Kunaschk, Max, 2024. "The effects of minimum wages on employment and prices—Evidence from the hairdressing sector," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    11. Sebastian Link, 2019. "The Price and Employment Response of Firms to the Introduction of Minimum Wages," CESifo Working Paper Series 7575, CESifo.
    12. Garcia-Louzao, Jose & Tarasonis, Linas, 2023. "Wage and Employment Impact of Minimum Wage: Evidence from Lithuania," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 592-609.
    13. Sebastian Fossati & Joseph Marchand, 2024. "First to $15: Alberta’s Minimum Wage Policy on Employment by Wages, Ages, and Places," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 77(1), pages 119-142, January.
    14. Baum-Snow, Nathaniel & Ferreira, Fernando, 2015. "Causal Inference in Urban and Regional Economics," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 3-68, Elsevier.
    15. David Neumark, 2024. "The effects of minimum wages on (almost) everything? A review of recent evidence on health and related behaviors," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 38(1), pages 1-65, March.
    16. Koster, Hans R.A. & van Ommeren, Jos & Volkhausen, Nicolas, 2021. "Short-term rentals and the housing market: Quasi-experimental evidence from Airbnb in Los Angeles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    17. Neumark David, 2019. "The Econometrics and Economics of the Employment Effects of Minimum Wages: Getting from Known Unknowns to Known Knowns," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 293-329, August.
    18. Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner, 2021. "City Limits: What Do Local-Area Minimum Wages Do?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 27-50, Winter.
    19. Perez Perez, Jorge, 2020. "City Minimum Wages and Spatial Equilibrium Effects," SocArXiv fpx9e, Center for Open Science.
    20. David Slichter, 2023. "The employment effects of the minimum wage: A selection ratio approach to measuring treatment effects," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 334-357, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Minimum wage; Boundary discontinuity; Policy spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:234:y:2024:i:c:s0047272724000677. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505578 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.