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The Cyclicality of the Stepping Stone Effect of Temporary Agency Employment

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  • Jahn, Elke Jutta
  • Rosholm, Michael

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the stepping stone effect of temporary agency employment moves over the business cycle. Using German administrative data for the period 1985-2012 and an estimation framework based on the timing-events model, we construct a time series of in-treatment and post-treatment effects and estimate their relationship to the aggregate unemployment rate. We find evidence for a strong lock-in effect of temporary agency employment that is even more pronounced in tight labor markets. This suggests that firms do not use agency employment as a screening device when unemployment is low. Moreover, we find a noticeable countercyclical positive post-treatment effect indicating that workers might be able to activate networks established while being in treatment. We further document that the treatment effects are non-linear over the business cycle.

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  • Jahn, Elke Jutta & Rosholm, Michael, 2015. "The Cyclicality of the Stepping Stone Effect of Temporary Agency Employment," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113117, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc15:113117
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    3. Hammer, Luisa & Hertweck, Matthias Sebastian, 2022. "EU Enlargement and (Temporary) Migration: Effects on Labour Market Outcomes in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264082, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J40 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - General
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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