Temporary agency work and the business cycle
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to test the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and agency work. Design/methodology/approach - The paper develops a theoretical model for the time interdependence of GDP, agency work and regular employment and tested model predictions using a VAR model. Findings - Results show that on the macro level temporary agency work leads GDP development. Temporary agency work is an excellent instrument for employers to adjust the size of their workforce to fluctuations in product demand. Temporary work agencies, however, have a tough job finding qualified personnel in tight labour markets because workers generally prefer the security of a permanent contract. It is shown in this paper that, as a result of these two countervailing forces, the number of hours worked through temporary work agencies precedes GDP development. Agency work increases in the last phase of a recession after regular workers have been dismissed. It expands further, in line with GDP, when the trough is passed until agency worker's labour supply stagnates. This leads to a decrease in agency hours even before the business cycle reaches its peak. Then agency work declines further, in line with GDP, until regular workers are dismissed and the cycle start again. Originality/value - Temporary work arrangements have become a key area of interest for firms, academics and policy makers. This paper shows how the use of these work arrangement fluctuates over time. Also, this paper shows that agency work can be used in predicting future GDP development.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 28 (2007)
Issue (Month): 7 (October)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com|
|Order Information:|| Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK|
Web: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/ijm.htm Email:
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:ijmpps:v:28:y:2007:i:7:p:539-556. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Virginia Chapman)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.