Social learning and parameter uncertainty in irreversible investments: Evidence from greenhouse adoption in northern China
This paper aims at an important gap in the literature, which has not modeled the effect of social learning in a real option context and examined uncertainty-reduction measures through social learning. This paper addresses the gap by modeling social learning as a way of reducing parameter uncertainty, thus facilitating technology adoption and shortening the waiting time in irreversible investments. We use household-level data on intermediate-technology greenhouse adoption in northern China to test the predictions in both a linear probability model and a duration analysis. Our empirical findings support the hypothesis. We also find that market volatility and insecure land property rights discourage adoption.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Conley, T.G. & Udry, C.R., 2000.
"Learning about a New Technology: Pineapple in Ghana,"
817, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Timothy G. Conley & Christopher R. Udry, 2010. "Learning about a New Technology: Pineapple in Ghana," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 35-69, March.
- Timothy G. Conley & Christopher R. Udry, 2005. "Learning about a new technology: pineapple in Ghana," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Lixin Huang & Hong Liu, 2007. "Rational Inattention and Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1999-2040, 08.
- Timothy Conley & Udry Christopher, 2001. "Social Learning Through Networks: The Adoption of New Agricultural Technologies in Ghana," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 668-673.
- Townsend, Robert M, 1994.
"Risk and Insurance in Village India,"
Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 539-91, May.
- Robert M. Townsend, . "Risk and Insurance in Village India," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 91-3a, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Townsend, R.M., 1991. "Risk and Insurance in Village India," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 91-3, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
- Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E & Zilberman, David, 1985. "Adoption of Agricultural Innovations in Developing Countries: A Survey," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(2), pages 255-98, January.
- Yamauchi, Futoshi, 2007.
"Social learning, neighborhood effects, and investment in human capital: Evidence from Green-Revolution India,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 37-62, May.
- Yamauchi, Futoshi, 2005. "Social learning, neighborhood effects, and investment in human capital: Evidence from Green-Revolution India," FCND discussion papers 190, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Demers, Michel, 1991. "Investment under Uncertainty, Irreversibility and the Arrival of Information over Time," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 333-50, April.
- repec:att:wimass:9127 is not listed on IDEAS
- Gennotte, Gerard, 1986. " Optimal Portfolio Choice under Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 733-46, July.
- Giuseppe Bertola & Ricardo J. Caballero, 1991.
"Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment,"
NBER Working Papers
3865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Rosenzweig & Andrew D. Foster, .
"Learning by Doing and Learning from Others: Human Capital and Technical Change in Agriculture,"
_068, University of Pennsylvania.
- Foster, Andrew D & Rosenzweig, Mark R, 1995. "Learning by Doing and Learning from Others: Human Capital and Technical Change in Agriculture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1176-1209, December.
- Manski, Charles F, 1993.
"Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 531-42, July.
- Timothy Besley & Anne Case, 1994.
"Diffusion as a Learning Process: Evidence from HYV Cotton,"
228, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
- Besley, T. & Case, A., 1994. "Diffusion as a Learning Process: Evidence from HYV Cotton," Papers 174, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
- Oriana Bandiera & Imran Rasul, 2006.
"Social Networks and Technology Adoption in Northern Mozambique,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(514), pages 869-902, October.
- Oriana Bandiera & Imran Rasul, 2002. "Social networks and technology adoption in Northern Mozambique," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3539, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Bandiera, Oriana & Rasul, Imran, 2002. "Social Networks and Technology Adoption in Northern Mozambique," CEPR Discussion Papers 3341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Oriana Bandiera & Imran Rasul, 2002. "Social Networks and Technology Adoption in Northern Mozambique," STICERD - Development Economics Papers - From 2008 this series has been superseded by Economic Organisation and Public Policy Discussion Papers 35, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Carletto, Calogero & Kirk, Angeli & Winters, Paul C. & Davis, Benjamin, 2010.
"Globalization and Smallholders: The Adoption, Diffusion, and Welfare Impact of Non-Traditional Export Crops in Guatemala,"
Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 814-827, June.
- Carletto, Calogero & Kirk, Angeli & Winters, Paul & Davis, Benjamin, 2008. "Globalization and Smallholders: The Adoption, Diffusion, and Welfare Impact of Non-traditional Export Crops in Guatemala," Working Paper Series RP2008/18, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Zeira, Joseph, 1987. "Investment as a Process of Search," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 204-10, February.
- McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
- Kevin A. Hassett & Gilbert E. Metcalf, 1992. "Energy Tax Credits and Residential Conservation Investment," NBER Working Papers 4020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zilberman, David & Sunding, David L. & Howitt, Richard E. & Dinar, Ariel & MacDougall, Neal A., 1994. "Water for California Agriculture: Lessons from the Drought and New Water Market Reform," Choices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 9(4).
- Yihong Xia, 2001. "Learning about Predictability: The Effects of Parameter Uncertainty on Dynamic Asset Allocation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 205-246, 02.
- van den Goorbergh, R.W.J. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2003. "Risk Aversion, Price Uncertainty and Irreversible Investments," Discussion Paper 2003-119, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Feder, Gershon, 1980. "Farm Size, Risk Aversion and the Adoption of New Technology under Uncertainty," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 263-83, July.
- Yan Shen & Yang Yao, 2006. "Grassroots Democracy and Income Distribution : Evidence from Village Elections in China," Governance Working Papers 21901, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Olmstead, Alan L & Rhode, Paul, 1993. "Induced Innovation in American Agriculture: A Reconsideration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 100-118, February.
- Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John V, 1993. "Sectoral Shocks, Learning, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 777-94, October.
- repec:dgr:kubcen:2003119 is not listed on IDEAS
- Sunding, David & Zilberman, David, 2001. "The agricultural innovation process: Research and technology adoption in a changing agricultural sector," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 207-261 Elsevier.
- Jovanovic, Boyan & Nyarko, Yaw, 1994. "The Bayesian Foundations of Learning by Doing," Working Papers 94-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Reardon, Thomas, 1997. "Using evidence of household income diversification to inform study of the rural nonfarm labor market in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 735-747, May.
- Munshi, Kaivan, 2004. "Social learning in a heterogeneous population: technology diffusion in the Indian Green Revolution," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 185-213, February.
- Alex Winter-Nelson & Koffi Amegbeto, 1998. "Option Values to Conservation and Agricultural Price Policy: Application to Terrace Construction in Kenya," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(2), pages 409-418.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:104-120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.