IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea08/6310.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Social Learning and Parameter Uncertainty in Irreversible Investment----Evidence from Greenhouse Adoption in Northern China

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Honglin
  • Reardon, Thomas

Abstract

This paper introduces social learning into irreversible investment theory through parameter uncertainty, and shows that social learning could reduce parameter uncertainty to facilitate irreversible investment technology adoption. The theoretic model is tested by using household level data from energy saving greenhouse adoption in northern China, and empirical evidences are consistent with the theory: social learning has significantly positive impacts on greenhouse adoption, while market volatility discourages the adoption.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Honglin & Reardon, Thomas, 2008. "Social Learning and Parameter Uncertainty in Irreversible Investment----Evidence from Greenhouse Adoption in Northern China," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6310, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea08:6310
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.6310
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/6310/files/466289.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.6310?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Townsend, Robert M, 1994. "Risk and Insurance in Village India," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 539-591, May.
    2. Oriana Bandiera & Imran Rasul, 2006. "Social Networks and Technology Adoption in Northern Mozambique," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(514), pages 869-902, October.
    3. Kevin A. Hassett & Gilbert E. Metcalf, 1992. "Energy Tax Credits and Residential Conservation Investment," NBER Working Papers 4020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 531-542.
    5. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    6. Foster, Andrew D & Rosenzweig, Mark R, 1995. "Learning by Doing and Learning from Others: Human Capital and Technical Change in Agriculture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1176-1209, December.
    7. Olmstead, Alan L & Rhode, Paul, 1993. "Induced Innovation in American Agriculture: A Reconsideration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 100-118, February.
    8. Timothy Conley & Udry Christopher, 2001. "Social Learning Through Networks: The Adoption of New Agricultural Technologies in Ghana," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 668-673.
    9. Reardon, Thomas, 1997. "Using evidence of household income diversification to inform study of the rural nonfarm labor market in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 735-747, May.
    10. Yan Shen & Yang Yao, 2006. "Grassroots Democracy and Income Distribution : Evidence from Village Elections in China," Governance Working Papers 21901, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    11. Alex Winter-Nelson & Koffi Amegbeto, 1998. "Option Values to Conservation and Agricultural Price Policy: Application to Terrace Construction in Kenya," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(2), pages 409-418.
    12. van den Goorbergh, R.W.J. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2003. "Risk Aversion, Price Uncertainty and Irreversible Investments," Other publications TiSEM 5232010b-ce04-47bf-a11f-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Feder, Gershon, 1980. "Farm Size, Risk Aversion and the Adoption of New Technology under Uncertainty," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 263-283, July.
    14. Timothy G. Conley & Christopher R. Udry, 2010. "Learning about a New Technology: Pineapple in Ghana," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 35-69, March.
    15. Lixin Huang & Hong Liu, 2007. "Rational Inattention and Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1999-2040, August.
    16. Gennotte, Gerard, 1986. "Optimal Portfolio Choice under Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 733-746, July.
    17. Jean-Paul Chavas, 1993. "On Sustainability and the Economics of Survival," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(1), pages 72-83.
    18. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    19. Michel Demers, 1991. "Investment under Uncertainty, Irreversibility and the Arrival of Information Over Time," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 333-350.
    20. Yamauchi, Futoshi, 2007. "Social learning, neighborhood effects, and investment in human capital: Evidence from Green-Revolution India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 37-62, May.
    21. Sunding, David & Zilberman, David, 2001. "The agricultural innovation process: Research and technology adoption in a changing agricultural sector," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 207-261, Elsevier.
    22. Munshi, Kaivan, 2004. "Social learning in a heterogeneous population: technology diffusion in the Indian Green Revolution," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 185-213, February.
    23. Carletto, Calogero & Kirk, Angeli & Winters, Paul C. & Davis, Benjamin, 2010. "Globalization and Smallholders: The Adoption, Diffusion, and Welfare Impact of Non-Traditional Export Crops in Guatemala," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 814-827, June.
    24. Besley, T. & Case, A., 1994. "Diffusion as a Learning Process: Evidence from HYV Cotton," Papers 174, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
    25. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E & Zilberman, David, 1985. "Adoption of Agricultural Innovations in Developing Countries: A Survey," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(2), pages 255-298, January.
    26. Huntley Schaller & Fanny Demers & Michel Demers, 1993. "Investments Under Uncertainty and Irreversibility," Carleton Economic Papers 93-10, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Sep 1990.
    27. Zilberman, David & Sunding, David L. & Howitt, Richard E. & Dinar, Ariel & MacDougall, Neal A., 1994. "Water for California Agriculture: Lessons from the Drought and New Water Market Reform," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 9(4), pages 1-4.
    28. Yihong Xia, 2001. "Learning about Predictability: The Effects of Parameter Uncertainty on Dynamic Asset Allocation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 205-246, February.
    29. Fafchamps, Marcel & Lund, Susan, 2003. "Risk-sharing networks in rural Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 261-287, August.
    30. Zeira, Joseph, 1987. "Investment as a Process of Search," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 204-210, February.
    31. M. J. Brennan, 1998. "The Role of Learning in Dynamic Portfolio Decisions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 1(3), pages 295-306.
    32. repec:pri:rpdevs:besley_case_diffusion is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Guiseppe Bertola & Ricardo J. Caballero, 1994. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(2), pages 223-246.
    34. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1984. "Option Pricing When the Underlying Asset Earns a Below-Equilibrium Rate of Return: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 261-265, March.
    35. Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 1993. "Sectoral Shocks, Learning, and Aggregate Fluctuations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(4), pages 777-794.
    36. Jovanovic, Boyan & Nyarko, Yaw, 1994. "The Bayesian Foundations of Learning by Doing," Working Papers 94-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    37. repec:pri:rpdevs:besley_case_diffusion.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hoken, Hisatoshi & Su, Qun, 2015. "Measuring the effect of agricultural cooperatives on household income using PSM-DID : a case study of a rice-producing cooperative in China," IDE Discussion Papers 539, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    2. Wu, Haixia & Li, Jianping & Ge, Yan, 2022. "Ambiguity preference, social learning and adoption of soil testing and formula fertilization technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    3. Gbêtondji Melaine Armel Nonvide, 2021. "Adoption of agricultural technologies among rice farmers in Benin," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 2372-2390, November.
    4. Hisatoshi Hoken & Qun Su, 2018. "Measuring the effect of agricultural cooperatives on household income: Case study of a rice‐producing cooperative in China," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 831-846, October.
    5. Elisabeth SADOULET, 2016. "Review of Theories of Learning for Adopting," Working Papers P163, FERDI.
    6. Jian Li & Ping Qing & Wuyang Hu & Minglai Li, 2022. "Contract farming, community effect, and farmer valuation of biofortified crop varieties in China: The case of high‐zinc wheat," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 1035-1055, May.
    7. Hongyu Wang & Xiaolei Wang & Apurbo Sarkar & Fuhong Zhang, 2021. "How Capital Endowment and Ecological Cognition Affect Environment-Friendly Technology Adoption: A Case of Apple Farmers of Shandong Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-16, July.
    8. Yongfeng Tan & Apurbo Sarkar & Airin Rahman & Lu Qian & Waqar Hussain Memon & Zharkyn Magzhan, 2021. "Does External Shock Influence Farmer’s Adoption of Modern Irrigation Technology?—A Case of Gansu Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-16, August.
    9. Fanglei Zhong & Lili Li & Aijun Guo & Xiaoyu Song & Qingping Cheng & Yongnian Zhang & Xiaojiang Ding, 2019. "Quantifying the Influence Path of Water Conservation Awareness on Water-Saving Irrigation Behavior Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior and Structural Equation Modeling: A Case Study from Northwest," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-16, September.
    10. Jing Li, 2019. "Land tenure and agricultural investments in China: a meta-regression analysis," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(2), pages 329-347, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. B Kelsey Jack, "undated". "Market Inefficiencies and the Adoption of Agricultural Technologies in Developing Countries," CID Working Papers 50, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    2. Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O. & Winter-Nelson, Alex, 2009. "Poverty status and the impact of social networks on smallholder technology adoption in rural Ethiopia," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49357, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Magnan, Nicholas & Spielman, David J. & Lybbert, Travis J. & Gulati, Kajal, 2015. "Leveling with friends: Social networks and Indian farmers' demand for a technology with heterogeneous benefits," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 223-251.
    4. Khushbu Mishra & Abdoul G. Sam & Gracious M. Diiro & Mario J. Miranda, 2020. "Gender and the dynamics of technology adoption: Empirical evidence from a household‐level panel data," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(6), pages 857-870, November.
    5. Sommarat Chantarat & Christopher Barrett, 2012. "Social network capital, economic mobility and poverty traps," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 10(3), pages 299-342, September.
    6. Christopher B. Busch & Colin Vance, 2011. "The Diffusion of Cattle Ranching and Deforestation: Prospects for a Hollow Frontier in Mexico’s Yucatán," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 87(4), pages 682-698.
    7. Timothy G. Conley & Christopher R. Udry, 2010. "Learning about a New Technology: Pineapple in Ghana," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 35-69, March.
    8. Kondylis, Florence & Mueller, Valerie, 2012. "Seeing is Believing? Evidence from a Demonstration Plot Experiment in Mozambique:," MSSP working papers 1, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Margherita Comola & Carla Inguaggiato & Mariapia Mendola, 2021. "Learning about Farming: Innovation and Social Networks in a Resettled Community in Brazil," Development Working Papers 468, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    10. Kazushi Takahashi & Rie Muraoka & Keijiro Otsuka, 2020. "Technology adoption, impact, and extension in developing countries’ agriculture: A review of the recent literature," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(1), pages 31-45, January.
    11. Huanxiu Guo & Sébastien Marchand, 2013. "Is participatory social learning a performance driver for Chinese smallholder farmers?," Working Papers halshs-00878886, HAL.
    12. Gine, Xavier & Klonner, Stefan, 2005. "Credit constraints as a barrier to technology adoption by the poor : lessons from South Indian small-scale fishery," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3665, The World Bank.
    13. Tisorn Songsermsawas & Kathy Baylis & Ashwini Chhatre & Hope Michelson, 2014. "Can Peers Improve Agricultural Productivity?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4958, CESifo.
    14. Mekonnen, Daniel Ayalew & Gerber, Nicolas & Matz, Julia Anna, 2018. "Gendered Social Networks, Agricultural Innovations, and Farm Productivity in Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 321-335.
    15. Nicholas Magnan & David J Spielman & Travis J. Lybbert & Kajal Gulati, 2013. "Leveling with Friends: Social Networks and Indian Farmers’ Demand for Agricultural Custom Hire Services," Working Papers id:5591, eSocialSciences.
    16. Yamauchi, Futoshi, 2007. "Social learning, neighborhood effects, and investment in human capital: Evidence from Green-Revolution India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 37-62, May.
    17. Belhaj, Mohamed & Deroïan, Frédéric, 2012. "Risk taking under heterogenous revenue sharing," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 192-202.
    18. Huanxiu Guo & Sébastien Marchand, 2013. "Is participatory social learning a performance driver for Chinese smallholder farmers?," CERDI Working papers halshs-00878886, HAL.
    19. Mekonnen Daniel Ayalew & Gerber Nicolas & Matz Julia Anna, 2016. "Working Paper 235 - Social Networks, Agricultural Innovations, and Farm Productivity in Ethiopia," Working Paper Series 2330, African Development Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies;

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea08:6310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.