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The Effect of Adult Criminals´ Spillovers On the Likelihood of Youths Becoming Criminals

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  • Carlos Medina

    ()

  • Jorge Andrés Tamayo

    ()

  • Christian Posso

    ()

Abstract

We use a unique data set at the individual level to estimate an empirical model explaining the probability of young individuals to become criminals as a function of the presence of adult criminals in their neighborhoods, an a complete set of control variables, including census sector fixed effects. We use the census of criminals captured in Medellín between 2000 and 2010 to construct our peer´s variables, and find a strong and robust positive effect of the presence of adult criminal neighbors on the probability of becoming criminal. The result is robust across different specifications of the presence of criminals, and with respect to the probability of committing different types of crimes, even controlling for contextual and group effects. Both modeling peer effects as the sum of friends´ efforts and modeling them as deviations from the means, affect the likelihood to become criminal, although with differential importance by type of crime.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Medina & Jorge Andrés Tamayo & Christian Posso, 2013. "The Effect of Adult Criminals´ Spillovers On the Likelihood of Youths Becoming Criminals," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010461, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:010461
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlos Medina & Jorge Andrés Tamayo, 2011. "An Assessment of How Urban Crime and Victimization Affects Life Satisfaction," Borradores de Economia 640, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Rajiv Sethi & Rohini Somanathan, 2004. "Inequality and Segregation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1296-1321, December.
    3. Edward L. Glaeser & Bruce I. Sacerdote & Jose A. Scheinkman, 2003. "The Social Multiplier," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 345-353, 04/05.
    4. Carlos Medina & Christian Posso & Jorge Andrés Tamayo, 2011. "Costos de la violencia urbana y políticas públicas: algunas lecciones de Medellín," Borradores de Economia 674, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. O'Flaherty, Brendan & Sethi, Rajiv, 2010. "Homicide in black and white," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 215-230, November.
    6. O'Flaherty, Brendan & Sethi, Rajiv, 2007. "Crime and segregation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 64(3-4), pages 391-405.
    7. Falk, Armin & Fischbacher, Urs, 2002. ""Crime" in the lab-detecting social interaction," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 859-869, May.
    8. Alejandro Gaviria & Carlos Medina & Jorge Tamayo, 2010. "Assessing the Link between Adolescent Fertility and Urban Crime," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 006860, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    9. Heinemann, Alessandra & Verner, Dorte, 2006. "Crime and violence in development : a literature review of Latin America and the Caribbean," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4041, The World Bank.
    10. Roland Benabou, 1993. "Workings of a City: Location, Education, and Production," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 619-652.
    11. Lee, Lung-fei, 2007. "Identification and estimation of econometric models with group interactions, contextual factors and fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 333-374, October.
    12. Lung-fei Lee & Xiaodong Liu & Xu Lin, 2010. "Specification and estimation of social interaction models with network structures," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 13(2), pages 145-176, July.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Criminal path-dependence (Medellin)
      by UDADISI in UDADISI on 2013-03-06 09:00:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Leonardo Fabio Morales & Lina Marcela Cardona-Sosa, 2014. "The Influence of Neighborhood Characteristics on Wages and Labor Supply in an Urban Context: The Case of a Latin-American City," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 012163, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    2. Leonardo Fabio Morales & Lina Cardona-Sosa, 2015. "Calidad de los vecindarios y oferta laboral femenina en un contexto urbano: un caso aplicado a la ciudad de Medellín," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 012588, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crime; Social Interactions.;

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • K40 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - General
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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