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Subjective Earnings and Academic Expectations of Tertiary Education in Colombia

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  • Luis Fernando Gamboa
  • Paul Andrés Rodríguez-Lesmes

Abstract

We analysed the academic expectations and earning expectations of a nationally representative sample of Colombian students who were finishing their upper-secondary education (high school) and considering three potential scenarios: whether to finish their studies, enrol in a vocational career, or pursue a college degree. We found that these students’ earning expectations are correlated with local labour market wages. However, they expect earnings as university graduates that are significantly above the current observed earnings, which is not the case for the other two levels of education. We also found that earning and academic expectations (test scores and odds of attending college) are closely related to their family socioeconomic background, school and municipality characteristics, and even reflect aspects such as gender gaps or private school premiums. Finally, both academic and earnings expectations are related to actual realised test scores. ****** Analizamos las expectativas académicas y de ingresos de una muestra representativa de estudiantes colombianos en el último año de educación media secundaria, en el cuál consideramos tres posibles escenarios: terminar sus estudios, inscribirse en una carrera vocacional, u obtener un título profesional. Encontramos que los estudiantes tienen expectativas de ingresos correlacionadas con los salarios observados en el mercado laboral. No obstante, sus expectativas de ingreso en el caso de obtener un título profesional son notablemente superiores a los ingresos observados, lo que no ocurre en los otros dos posibles escenarios. También encontramos que las expectativas de ingreso y académicas (resultados de pruebas estandarizadas y la probabilidad de ir a una universidad) están relacionadas con las características socioeconómicas de sus familias, colegio y variables clave del municipio, reflejando aspectos como las brechas de género o el bono de estudiar en un colegio privado. Finalmente, los dos tipos de expectativas están relacionadas con los resultados obtenidos en las pruebas oficiales estandarizadas.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Fernando Gamboa & Paul Andrés Rodríguez-Lesmes, 2018. "Subjective Earnings and Academic Expectations of Tertiary Education in Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 36(86), pages 159-177, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:36:y:2018:i:86:p:159-177
    DOI: 10.32468/espe.8601
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Rodríguez-Lesmes & José D. Trujillo & Daniel Valderrama, 2015. "Are Public Libraries Improving Quality of Education? When the Provision of Public Goods is not Enough," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, December.
    2. Bonilla-Mejía, Leonardo & Bottan, Nicolas L. & Ham, Andrés, 2019. "Information policies and higher education choices experimental evidence from Colombia," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Ilya Prakhov, 2019. "The Determinants Of Expected Returns On Higher Education In Russia: A Human Capital Theory Perspective," HSE Working papers WP BRP 50/EDU/2019, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    4. Melguizo, Tatiana & Sanchez, Fabio & Velasco, Tatiana, 2016. "Credit for Low-Income Students and Access to and Academic Performance in Higher Education in Colombia: A Regression Discontinuity Approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 61-77.
    5. Ilya Prakhov, 2017. "Determinants of Expected Return on Higher Education in Moscow," Voprosy obrazovaniya / Educational Studies Moscow, National Research University Higher School of Economics, issue 1, pages 25-57.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Subjective expectations; Colombian education; tertiary education; Expectativas Subjetivas; Educación en Colombia; Educación terciaria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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