IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/ctjd6.html

A new method to reduce overestimation of thresholds with observational network data

Author

Listed:
  • Berry, George
  • Cameron, Christopher John

Abstract

Networks of interdependent nodes support phenomena such as epidemics, product adoption, cascading failure, ecosystem collapse, congestion, and bandwagon effects. We consider the problem of using observational data to estimate the sensitivity of individual nodes to the activation of their network neighbors. We prove that—in the case of binary activation decisions—activation thresholds are impossible to correctly measure for some nodes in virtually all contagion processes on complex networks. This result holds even when each step of the process is observed. Measurement error always produces an overestimate of a node's true activation threshold. We develop a condition for determining which node thresholds are correctly measured and demonstrate that modeling activation thresholds as a function of node-level factors reduces the error compared to existing approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Berry, George & Cameron, Christopher John, 2017. "A new method to reduce overestimation of thresholds with observational network data," SocArXiv ctjd6, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:ctjd6
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/ctjd6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/58adf4fc594d9001fc145414/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/ctjd6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klovdahl, A.S. & Potterat, J.J. & Woodhouse, D.E. & Muth, J.B. & Muth, S.Q. & Darrow, W.W., 1994. "Social networks and infectious disease: The Colorado Springs study," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 79-88, January.
    2. Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
    3. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 531-542.
    4. Steven H. Strogatz, 2001. "Exploring complex networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 410(6825), pages 268-276, March.
    5. Xuqing Huang & Irena Vodenska & Shlomo Havlin & H. Eugene Stanley, 2012. "Cascading Failures in Bi-partite Graphs: Model for Systemic Risk Propagation," Papers 1210.4973, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2013.
    6. Giacomo De Giorgi & Michele Pellizzari & Silvia Redaelli, 2010. "Identification of Social Interactions through Partially Overlapping Peer Groups," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 241-275, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:osf:socarx:ctjd6_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. V. Sasidevan & Nils Bertschinger, 2019. "Systemic Risk: Fire-Walling Financial Systems Using Network-Based Approaches," Papers 1912.05273, arXiv.org.
    3. Humlum, Maria Knoth & Thorsager, Mette, 2021. "The Importance of Peer Quality for Completion of Higher Education," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Anton Badev, 2014. "Discrete Games in Endogenous Networks: Theory and Policy," 2014 Meeting Papers 901, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Rhys Murrian & Paul A. Raschky & Klaus Ackermann, 2024. "Friends, Key Players and the Adoption and Use of Experience Goods," Monash Economics Working Papers 2024-17, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    6. Moroni, Gloria & Nicoletti, Cheti & Salvanes, Kjell Gunnar & Tominey, Emma, 2025. "Gender equality through marriage," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 20/2025, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    7. Daichi SHIMAMOTO & Yu Ri KIM & Yasuyuki TODO, 2019. "The Effect of Social Interactions on Exporting Activities: Evidence from Micro, Small, and Medium-Sized Enterprises in rural Vietnam," Discussion papers 19020, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. Magnus A. H. Gulbrandsen, 2021. "Peer effects and debt accumulation: Evidence from lottery winnings," Working Paper 2021/10, Norges Bank.
    9. Mathieu Lambotte & Sandrine Mathy & Anna Risch & Carole Treibich, 2022. "Spreading active transportation: peer effects and key players in the workplace," Post-Print hal-03702684, HAL.
    10. Marco Tonello, 2011. "Mechanisms of peer interactions between native and non-native students: rejection or integration?," Working Papers 2011/21, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    11. Caccioli, Fabio & Shrestha, Munik & Moore, Cristopher & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2014. "Stability analysis of financial contagion due to overlapping portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 233-245.
    12. Ariel BenYishay & A. Mushfiq Mobarak, 2014. "Social Learning and Communication," NBER Working Papers 20139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Yann Bramoullé & Habiba Djebbari & Bernard Fortin, 2020. "Peer Effects in Networks: A Survey," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 603-629, August.
    14. Shanshan Jiang & Jie Wang & Ruiting Dong & Yutong Li & Min Xia, 2023. "Systemic Risk with Multi-Channel Risk Contagion in the Interbank Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-24, February.
    15. Bet Caeyers, 2014. "Peer effects in development programme awareness of vulnerable groups in rural Tanzania," CSAE Working Paper Series 2014-11, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    16. Colussi, Tommaso, 2015. "Migrant Networks and Job Search Outcomes: Evidence from Displaced Workers," IZA Discussion Papers 9339, IZA Network @ LISER.
    17. Huanxiu GUO & Mary-Françoise RENARD, 2013. "Social activity and collective action for agricultural innovation: a case study of New Rural Reconstruction in China," Working Papers 201306, CERDI.
    18. Arun Advani & Bansi Malde, 2018. "Credibly Identifying Social Effects: Accounting For Network Formation And Measurement Error," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 1016-1044, September.
    19. Mundt, Philipp, 2021. "The formation of input–output architecture: Evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 89-104.
    20. Chih-Sheng Hsieh & Stanley I. M. Ko & Jaromír Kovářík & Trevon Logan, 2018. "Non-Randomly Sampled Networks: Biases and Corrections," NBER Working Papers 25270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Houndetoungan, Aristide & Kouame, Cristelle & Vlassopoulos, Michael, 2024. "Identifying Peer Effects in Networks with Unobserved Effort and Isolated Students," IZA Discussion Papers 16998, IZA Network @ LISER.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:ctjd6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arabixiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.