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An economic theory of statistical testing

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  • Aleksey Tetenov

Abstract

This paper models the use of statistical hypothesis testing in regulatory approval. A privately informed agent proposes an innovation. Its approval is beneficial to the proponent, but potentially detrimental to the regulator. The proponent can conduct a costly clinical trial to persuade the regulator. I show that the regulator can screen out all ex-ante undesirable proponents by committing to use a simple statistical test. Its level is the ratio of the trial cost to the proponent's benefit from approval. In application to new drug approval, this level is around 15% for an average Phase III clinical trial.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksey Tetenov, 2016. "An economic theory of statistical testing," CeMMAP working papers 50/16, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:azt:cemmap:50/16
    DOI: 10.1920/wp.cem.2016.5016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sylvain Chassang & Gerard Padro I Miquel & Erik Snowberg, 2012. "Selective Trials: A Principal-Agent Approach to Randomized Controlled Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1279-1309, June.
    2. Stoye, Jörg, 2009. "Minimax regret treatment choice with finite samples," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 151(1), pages 70-81, July.
    3. Keisuke Hirano & Jack R. Porter, 2009. "Asymptotics for Statistical Treatment Rules," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1683-1701, September.
    4. Tetenov, Aleksey, 2012. "Statistical treatment choice based on asymmetric minimax regret criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(1), pages 157-165.
    5. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1221-1246, July.
    6. DiMasi, Joseph A. & Hansen, Ronald W. & Grabowski, Henry G., 2003. "The price of innovation: new estimates of drug development costs," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 151-185, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Flora C. Shi & Stephen Bates & Martin J. Wainwright, 2024. "Sharp Results for Hypothesis Testing with Risk-Sensitive Agents," Papers 2412.16452, arXiv.org.
    2. Maximilian Kasy & Jann Spiess, 2022. "Optimal Pre-Analysis Plans: Statistical Decisions Subject to Implementability," Papers 2208.09638, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
    3. Ravi Jagadeesan & Davide Viviano, 2025. "Publication Design with Incentives in Mind," Papers 2504.21156, arXiv.org.
    4. Hirano, Keisuke & Porter, Jack R., 2020. "Asymptotic analysis of statistical decision rules in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Steven N. Durlauf & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman & Rosa L. Matzkin (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 0, pages 283-354, Elsevier.

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