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The Dynamic Effects of Open-Space Conservation Policies on Residential Development Density

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  • Lewis, David J.

    (U of Wisconsin)

  • Provencher, Bill
  • Butsic, Van

Abstract

Recent economic analyses emphasize that designated open-space increases the rents on neighboring residential land, and likewise, the probability of undeveloped land converting to residential uses. This paper addresses a different question: What is the effect of local open space conservation on the rate of growth in the density of existing residential land? The analysis is relevant for exurban development and also for remote lakeshore development, where shoreline development density can rapidly increase over time and open-space policies are often advocated as a way to protect ecosystems by reducing development. A discrete choice econometric model of lakeshore development is estimated with a unique parcel-level spatial-temporal dataset, using maximum simulated likelihood to account for i) the panel structure of the data, ii) unobserved spatial heterogeneity, and iii) sample selection resulting from correlated unobservables. Results indicate that, contrary to the intuition derived from the current literature, local open space conservation policies do not increase the rate of growth in residential development density, and some open space conservation policies may reduce the rate of growth in residential development density. This is consistent with land-value complementarity between local open space and parcel size. Spatially-explicit simulations at the landscape scale examine the relative effects of conservation policies on the time path of development.

Suggested Citation

  • Lewis, David J. & Provencher, Bill & Butsic, Van, 2008. "The Dynamic Effects of Open-Space Conservation Policies on Residential Development Density," Staff Paper Series 522, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecl:wisagr:522
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    File URL: http://www.aae.wisc.edu/pubs/sps/pdf/stpap522.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Carmen Carrión-Flores & Elena G. Irwin, 2017. "A fixed effects logit model of rural land conversion and zoning," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 58(1), pages 181-208, January.
    2. Qin Fan & J. Andrew Hansz & Xiaoming Yang, 2016. "The Pricing Effects of Open Space Amenities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 244-271, April.
    3. Lewis, David J., 2010. "An economic framework for forecasting land-use and ecosystem change," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 98-116, April.
    4. Matthew Chadourne & Seong-Hoon Cho & Roland Roberts, 2013. "Identifying priority target areas for the Knoxville–Knox County hillside and ridgetop protection plan: using the value of visual amenity during the real estate boom of 2002–2007 and the recession of 2," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 50(3), pages 911-934, June.
    5. Elena G. Irwin, 2010. "New Directions For Urban Economic Models Of Land Use Change: Incorporating Spatial Dynamics And Heterogeneity," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 65-91.
    6. Ferris, Jeffrey & David, Newburn, 2014. "Residential Development And The Effect Of Forest Conservation Policy," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170337, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Maria A. Cunha-e-Sa & Sofia F. Franco, 2013. "The Effects of Land-Use Development Policies on Forest Management," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp576, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia.
    8. Lewis, David J. & Alig, Ralph J., 2009. "Empirical Methods for Modeling Landscape Change, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity," Western Economics Forum, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 8(01).
    9. Andrade de Sá, Saraly & Palmer, Charles & di Falco, Salvatore, 2013. "Dynamics of indirect land-use change: Empirical evidence from Brazil," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 377-393.
    10. Wrenn, Douglas H. & Sam, Abdoul G. & Irwin, Elena G., 2012. "Searching for the Urban Fringe: Exploring Spatio-Temporal Variations in the Effect of Distance versus Local Interactions on Residential Land Conversion Using a Conditionally-Parametric Discrete-Time D," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 125007, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Zhang, Wendong & Wrenn, Douglas H. & Irwin, Elena G., 2016. "Spatial Heterogeneity, Accessibility and Zoning: An Empirical Investigation of Leapfrog Development," ISU General Staff Papers 201602290800001589, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    12. David J. Lewis & Bradford L. Barham & Brian Robinson, 2011. "Are There Spatial Spillovers in the Adoption of Clean Technology? The Case of Organic Dairy Farming," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 87(2), pages 250-267.
    13. repec:eee:ecolec:v:142:y:2017:i:c:p:70-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Gottlieb, Paul D. & O’Donnell, Anthony & Rudel, Thomas & O’Neill, Karen & McDermott, Melanie, 2012. "Determinants of local housing growth in a multi-jurisdictional region, along with a test for nonmarket zoning," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 296-309.
    15. Douglas H. Wrenn & H. Allen Klaiber & David A. Newburn, 2017. "Confronting Price Endogeneity in a Duration Model of Residential Subdivision Development," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 661-682, April.
    16. Ahfeldt, Gabriel M. & Pietrostefani, Elisabetta, 2017. "The compact city in empirical research: A quantitative literature review," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 83638, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Gabriel M. Ahfeldt & Elisabetta Pietrostefani, 2017. "The Compact City in Empirical Research: A Quantitative Literature Review," SERC Discussion Papers 0215, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
    18. Van Butsic & David J. Lewis & Lindsay Ludwig, 2011. "An Econometric Analysis of Land Development with Endogenous Zoning," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 87(3), pages 412-432.
    19. Kovacs, Kent F. & Polasky, Stephen & Keeler, Bonnie & Pennington, Derric & Nelson, Erik & Plantinga, Andrew J. & Taff, Steven J., 2012. "Evaluating the Return in Ecosystem Services from Investment in Public Land Acquisitions," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124660, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Van Butsic & Maggi Kelly & Max A. Moritz, 2015. "Land Use and Wildfire: A Review of Local Interactions and Teleconnections," Land, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, February.
    21. Elena G. Irwin & Andrew M. Isserman & Maureen Kilkenny & Mark D. Partridge, 2010. "A Century of Research on Rural Development and Regional Issues," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(2), pages 522-553.

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