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A fixed effects logit model of rural land conversion and zoning

Author

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  • Carmen Carrión-Flores

    (State University of New York, Binghamton)

  • Elena G. Irwin

    (The Ohio State University)

Abstract

We examine the effect that public facilities moratorium and minimum lot size zoning have on the conversion of rural land to residential subdivisions in fast-growing exurban areas using a natural experiment approach. Zoning ordinances are the most common growth control policy at the local level and are hypothesized to be one of the most important factors in determining the likelihood of residential development. We investigate the role of minimum lot size zoning by taking advantage of plausibly exogenous changes in zoning policies that altered the developable status of some rural land parcels in an exurban county of Ohio. A discrete-choice econometric model of land use conversion is estimated with a parcel-level temporal dataset, using conditional maximum likelihood estimation to account for the panel structure of the data and fixed effects to control for unobserved heterogeneity. Empirical evidence indicates that minimum lot size zoning has a negative effect on the likelihood of rural land conversion and that this effect is large in magnitude. Specifically, we find that a parcel that is subject to a minimum lot size zoning is between 4.4 and 6.4% less likely to be converted to residential land use. In comparison, results from a pooled model, in which the unobserved heterogeneity is left uncontrolled, suggest that minimum lot size zoning has a relatively small negative effect on the conversion probability of undeveloped land parcels. Thus, estimates that do not control for unobserved heterogeneity are likely biased toward zero.

Suggested Citation

  • Carmen Carrión-Flores & Elena G. Irwin, 2017. "A fixed effects logit model of rural land conversion and zoning," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 58(1), pages 181-208, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:58:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s00168-016-0796-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-016-0796-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lu, Chen-Fu & Cheng, Chia-Yi, 2023. "Does the change of agricultural zoning policy achieve farmland protection in Taiwan?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R52 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Land Use and Other Regulations

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