The sensitivity of subjective probability to time and elicitation method
The paper reports the results of a survey designed to elicit probability judgements for different types of events: ‘pure chance’ events, for which objective probabilities can be calculated; ‘public’ events, about which there may be some discussion in social groups and the media; and ‘personal’ events, such as those relating to crime or accidental injury. Even among respondents deemed to be ‘well-calibrated’ in the domain of pure chance events we find limited sensitivity to the ‘temporal scope’ of public and personal events—this being especially marked for personal events. We discuss possible reasons and some implications for policy-related survey work. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007
Volume (Year): 34 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
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- J. Dominitz & C. F. Manski, "undated".
"Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations,"
Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers
1105-96, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
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- Loewenstein, George, 1999. "Experimental Economics from the Vantage-Point of Behavioural Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(453), pages 23-34, February. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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