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Identification and estimation of marginal effects in nonlinear panel models

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  • Victor Chernozhukov

    ()

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Ivan Fernandez-Val
  • Jinyong Hahn
  • Whitney Newey

    ()

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract

This paper gives identification and estimation results for marginal effects in nonlinear panel models. We find that linear fixed effects estimators are not consistent, due in part to marginal effects not being identified. We derive bounds for marginal effects and show that they can tighten rapidly as the number of time series observations grows. We also show in numerical calculations that the bounds may be very tight for small numbers of observations, suggesting they may be useful in practice. We propose two novel inference methods for parameters defined as solutions to linear and nonlinear programs such as marginal effects in multinomial choice models. We show that these methods produce uniformly valid confidence regions in large samples. We give an empirical illustration.

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File URL: http://cemmap.ifs.org.uk/wps/cwp0509.pdf
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Paper provided by Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies in its series CeMMAP working papers with number CWP05/09.

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Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:05/09
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  1. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 2006. "Monte Carlo tests with nuisance parameters: A general approach to finite-sample inference and nonstandard asymptotics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 443-477, August.
  2. Tiemen Woutersen, 2002. "Robustness against Incidental Parameters," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 20028, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  3. Carrasco, R., 1998. "Binary Choice with Binary Endogenous Regressors in Panel Data: Estimating the Effect of Fertility on Female Labour Participation," Papers 9805, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  4. Jinyong Hahn & Whitney Newey, 2003. "Jackknife and analytical bias reduction for nonlinear panel models," CeMMAP working papers CWP17/03, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  5. Beresteanu, Arie & Molinari, Francesca, 2006. "Asymptotic Properties for a Class of Partially Identified Models," Working Papers 06-07, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
  6. Jinyong Hahn & Guido Kuersteiner, 2002. "Asymptotically Unbiased Inference for a Dynamic Panel Model with Fixed Effects when Both "n" and "T" Are Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1639-1657, July.
  7. Charles F. Manski & Elie Tamer, 2002. "Inference on Regressions with Interval Data on a Regressor or Outcome," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 519-546, March.
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  10. Joshua D. Angrist, 1998. "Estimating the Labor Market Impact of Voluntary Military Service Using Social Security Data on Military Applicants," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(2), pages 249-288, March.
  11. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Fixed-Effects and Related Estimators for Correlated Random-Coefficient and Treatment-Effect Panel Data Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 385-390, May.
  12. Victor Chernozhukov & Han Hong & Elie Tamer, 2007. "Estimation and Confidence Regions for Parameter Sets in Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1243-1284, 09.
  13. Bryan S. Graham & James Powell, 2008. "Identification and Estimation of 'Irregular' Correlated Random Coefficient Models," NBER Working Papers 14469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Hahn, Jinyong, 2001. "Comment: Binary Regressors in Nonlinear Panel-Data Models with Fixed Effects," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 16-17, January.
  15. Dean R. Hyslop, 1999. "State Dependence, Serial Correlation and Heterogeneity in Intertemporal Labor Force Participation of Married Women," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1255-1294, November.
  16. Carro, Jesus M., 2007. "Estimating dynamic panel data discrete choice models with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 503-528, October.
  17. Chamberlain, Gary, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 225-38, January.
  18. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier.
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