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What will I be when I grow up? An analysis of childhood expectations and career outcomes

  • Brown, Sarah
  • Ortiz-Nuñez, Aurora
  • Taylor, Karl

In this paper, we utilise the British National Child Development Study to explore the determinants of career expectations formed at the age of 16. We analyse the influence of careers advice and resources at school on career expectations as well as the influence of education. In addition, we explore the accuracy of occupational expectations as compared to the occupation that the respondents subsequently become employed in. Throughout our findings, human capital and gender play a pivotal role in explaining career expectations as well as explaining the accuracy of the occupational forecast. Interestingly, the level of school resources available for careers guidance in terms of the number of teachers who are qualified to give careers advice and the amount of specific careers guidance training received by these teachers both have relatively small effects upon career expectations.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics of Education Review.

Volume (Year): 30 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 493-506

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoedu:v:30:y:2011:i:3:p:493-506
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/econedurev

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  2. Arnaud Chevalier, 2007. "Education, Occupation and Career Expectations: Determinants of the Gender Pay Gap for UK Graduates," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 819-842, December.
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  8. Carvajal, Manuel J. & Bendana, David & Bozorgmanesh, Alireza & Castillo, Miguel A. & Pourmasiha, Katayoun & Rao, Priya & Torres, Juan A., 2000. "Inter-gender differentials between college students' earnings expectations and the experience of recent graduates," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 229-243, June.
  9. Denise Hawkes & Ian Plewis, 2006. "Modelling non-response in the National Child Development Study," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 169(3), pages 479-491.
  10. McIntosh, James & Munk, Martin D., 2009. "Social class, family background, and intergenerational mobility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 107-117, January.
  11. Mayhew, Ken & Rosewell, Bridget, 1981. "Occupational Mobility in Britain," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 43(3), pages 225-55, August.
  12. Francesconi, Marco & Nicoletti, Cheti, 2004. "Intergenerational mobility and sample selection in short panels," ISER Working Paper Series 2004-17, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  13. Lorraine Dearden & Javier Ferri & Costas Meghir, 2002. "The Effect Of School Quality On Educational Attainment And Wages," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 1-20, February.
  14. Sarah Brown & Gaia Garino & Karl Taylor, 2005. "Mortgages and Financial Expectations: A Household Level Analysis," Discussion Papers in Economics 05/9, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Dec 2006.
  15. Ermisch, John & Francesconi, Marco, 2001. "Family Matters: Impacts of Family Background on Educational Attainments," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(270), pages 137-56, May.
  16. Robertson, D. & Symons, J., 1988. "The Occupational Choice Of British Children," Papers 325, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.
  17. Andrews, Martyn & Bradley, Steve, 1997. "Modelling the Transition from School and the Demand for Training in the United Kingdom," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(255), pages 387-413, August.
  18. Botelho, Anabela & Pinto, Ligia Costa, 2004. "Students' expectations of the economic returns to college education: results of a controlled experiment," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 645-653, December.
  19. Jason Long & Joseph Ferrie, 2007. "The Path to Convergence: Intergenerational Occupational Mobility in Britain and the US in Three Eras," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(519), pages C61-C71, 03.
  20. Erikson, Robert & Goldthorpe, John H., 2009. "Social class, family background, and intergenerational mobility: A comment on Mcintosh and Munk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 118-120, January.
  21. Stephen Nickell, 1982. "The Determinants of Occupational Success in Britain," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(1), pages 43-53.
  22. Schmidt, Peter & Strauss, Robert P, 1975. "The Prediction of Occupation Using Multiple Logit Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(2), pages 471-86, June.
  23. Gupta, Nabanita Datta, 1993. "Probabilities of Job Choice and Employer Selection and Male-Female Occupational Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 57-61, May.
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  25. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, 09.
  26. Greenhalgh, Christine A & Stewart, Mark B, 1985. "The Occupational Status and Mobility of British Men and Women," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 40-71, March.
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