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Modelling non-response in the National Child Development Study

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  • Denise Hawkes
  • Ian Plewis

Abstract

There is widespread concern that the cumulative effects of the non-response that is bound to affect any long-running longitudinal study will lead to mistaken inferences about change. We focus on the National Child Development Study and show how non-response has accumulated over time. We distinguish between attrition and wave non-response and show how these two kinds of non-response can be related to a set of explanatory variables. We model the discrete time hazard of non-response and also fit a set of multinomial logistic regressions to the probabilities of different kinds of non-response at a particular sweep. We find that the best predictors of non-response at any sweep are generally variables that are measured at the previous sweep but, although non-response is systematic, much of the variation in it remains unexplained by our models. We consider the implications of our results for both design and analysis. Copyright 2006 Royal Statistical Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Denise Hawkes & Ian Plewis, 2006. "Modelling non-response in the National Child Development Study," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 169(3), pages 479-491.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:169:y:2006:i:3:p:479-491
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    Cited by:

    1. Millemaci, Emanuele & Sciulli, Dario, 2011. "The causal effect of family difficulties during childhood on adult labour market outcomes," MPRA Paper 29026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kevin Denny & Orla Doyle, 2005. "Does voting history matter : analysing persistence in turnout," Open Access publications 10197/167, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    3. Kevin Denny & Orla Doyle, 2010. "The causal effect of breastfeeding on children’s cognitive development : a quasi-experimental design," Working Papers 201005, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    4. Schnepf, Sylke V. & Durrant, Gabriele B. & Micklewright, John, 2014. "Which Schools and Pupils Respond to Educational Achievement Surveys? A Focus on the English PISA Sample," IZA Discussion Papers 8411, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Emanuele Millemaci & Dario Sciulli, 2014. "The long-term impact of family difficulties during childhood on labor market outcomes," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 663-687, December.
    6. Palloni, Alberto & Milesi, Carolina & White, Robert G. & Turner, Alyn, 2009. "Early childhood health, reproduction of economic inequalities and the persistence of health and mortality differentials," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 68(9), pages 1574-1582, May.
    7. Sciulli, Dario, 2016. "Adult employment probabilities of socially maladjusted children," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 9-22.
    8. Brown, Sarah & Ortiz-Nuñez, Aurora & Taylor, Karl, 2011. "What will I be when I grow up? An analysis of childhood expectations and career outcomes," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 493-506, June.
    9. Uhrig, S.C. Noah, 2008. "The nature and causes of attrition in the British Household Panel Study," ISER Working Paper Series 2008-05, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    10. Gabriella Melis & Mark Elliot & Nick Shryane, 2014. "Environmental Concern Over Time: Evidence from the Longitudinal Analysis of a British Cohort Study from 1991 to 2008," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 95(4), pages 905-919, December.
    11. Brown, Sarah & Taylor, Karl, 2008. "Bullying, education and earnings: Evidence from the National Child Development Study," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 387-401, August.
    12. Fiona Steele & Constantinos Kallis & Harvey Goldstein & Heather Joshi, 2005. "The relationship between childbearing and transitions from marriage and cohabitation in Britain," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(4), pages 647-673, November.
    13. Frick, Joachim R. & Grabka, Markus M., 2007. "Item Non-Response and Imputation of Annual Labor Income in Panel Surveys from a Cross-National Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 3043, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    14. Nicole Watson & Mark Wooden, 2011. "Re-engaging with Survey Non-respondents: The BHPS, SOEP and HILDA Survey Experience," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2011n02, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    15. Egan, Mark & Daly, Michael & Delaney, Liam, 2015. "Childhood psychological distress and youth unemployment: Evidence from two British cohort studies," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 11-17.
    16. Christian Seiler, 2010. "Dynamic Modelling of Nonresponse in Business Surveys," ifo Working Paper Series 93, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    17. Chen, Alice J., 2012. "When does weight matter most?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 285-295.
    18. Stefan Kipar, 2012. "Determinants of Firm Innovation - Evidence from German Panel Data," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 45, June.
    19. Tobias Gramlich, 2008. "Analyse der Panelausfälle im Sozio-oekonomischen Panel SOEP," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 129, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    20. Thomas, Duncan & Witoelar, Firman & Frankenberg, Elizabeth & Sikoki, Bondan & Strauss, John & Sumantri, Cecep & Suriastini, Wayan, 2012. "Cutting the costs of attrition: Results from the Indonesia Family Life Survey," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 108-123.
    21. Christopher J. Gerry & Georgios Papadopoulos, 2015. "Sample attrition in the RLMS, 2001–10," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 23(2), pages 425-468, April.
    22. Daly, M. & Delaney, L., 2013. "The scarring effect of unemployment throughout adulthood on psychological distress at age 50: Estimates controlling for early adulthood distress and childhood psychological factors," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 19-23.
    23. Steele, Fiona & Durrant, Gabriele B., 2011. "Alternative approaches to multilevel modelling of survey non-contact and refusal," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 50113, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    24. Andrew Burke & Felix FitzRoy & Michael Nolan, 2008. "What makes a die-hard entrepreneur? Beyond the ‘employee or entrepreneur’ dichotomy," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 93-115, August.

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