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Risk, uncertainty and discrete choice models

  • Andre Palma

    ()

  • Moshe Ben-Akiva
  • David Brownstone
  • Charles Holt
  • Thierry Magnac
  • Daniel McFadden
  • Peter Moffatt
  • Nathalie Picard
  • Kenneth Train
  • Peter Wakker
  • Joan Walker

This paper examines the cross-fertilizations of random utility models with the study of decision making under risk and uncertainty. We start with a description of the Expected Utility (EU) theory and then consider deviations from the standard EU frameworks, involving the Allais paradox and the Ellsberg paradox, inter alia. We then discuss how the resulting Non-EU framework can be modeled and estimated within the framework of discrete choices in static and dynamic contexts. Our objectives in addressing risk and ambiguity in individual choice contexts are to understand the decision choice process, and to use behavioral information for prediction, prescription and policy analysis.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11002-008-9047-0
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Marketing Letters.

Volume (Year): 19 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 269-285

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Handle: RePEc:kap:mktlet:v:19:y:2008:i:3:p:269-285
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100312

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  1. James J. Heckman & Salvador Navarro, 2005. "Dynamic Discrete Choice and Dynamic Treatment Effects," NBER Technical Working Papers 0316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Grether, David M. & Plott, Charles R., . "Economic Theory of Choice and the Preference Reversal Phenomenon," Working Papers 152, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
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  7. Chateauneuf, Alain & Eichberger, Jurgen & Grant, Simon, 2007. "Choice under uncertainty with the best and worst in mind: Neo-additive capacities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 538-567, November.
  8. Arthur van Soest & Arie Kapteyn & Julie Zissimopoulos, 2006. "Using Stated Preferences Data to Analyze Preferences for Full and Partial Retirement," Working Papers 345, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
  9. Ackerberg, Daniel & Lanier Benkard, C. & Berry, Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 2007. "Econometric Tools for Analyzing Market Outcomes," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 63 Elsevier.
  10. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
  11. Jean-Pierre Dubé & K. Sudhir & Andrew Ching & Gregory Crawford & Michaela Draganska & Jeremy Fox & Wesley Hartmann & Günter Hitsch & V. Viard & Miguel Villas-Boas & Naufel Vilcassim, 2005. "Recent Advances in Structural Econometric Modeling: Dynamics, Product Positioning and Entry," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 209-224, December.
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  16. Machina, Mark J, 1989. "Dynamic Consistency and Non-expected Utility Models of Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1622-68, December.
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  19. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
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  23. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
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  26. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier.
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