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The Impact of Selection into the Labor Force on the Gender Wage Gap

Author

Listed:
  • Francine D. Blau
  • Lawrence M. Kahn
  • Nikolai Boboshko
  • Matthew L. Comey

Abstract

We study the impact of selection bias on estimates of the gender pay gap, focusing on whether the gender pay gap has fallen since 1981. Previous research has found divergent results across techniques, identification strategies, data sets, and time periods. Using Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics data and a number of different identification strategies, we find robust evidence that, after controlling for selection, there were large declines in the raw and the unexplained gender wage gaps over the 1981-2015 period. Under our preferred method of accounting for selection, we find that the raw median wage gap declined by 0.378 log points, while the median unexplained gap declined by a more modest but still substantial 0.204 log points. These declines are larger than estimates that do not account for selection. Our results suggest that women’s relative wage offers have increased over this period, even after controlling for their measured covariates, including education and actual labor market experience. However, we note that substantial gender wage gaps remain. In 2015, at the median, the selectivity-corrected gaps were 0.242 log points (raw gap) and 0.206 log points (unexplained gap).

Suggested Citation

  • Francine D. Blau & Lawrence M. Kahn & Nikolai Boboshko & Matthew L. Comey, 2021. "The Impact of Selection into the Labor Force on the Gender Wage Gap," NBER Working Papers 28855, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28855
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    Cited by:

    1. Lauren Bari, 2024. "Gendered Divergence in the Impact of Parenthood on Wages: The Role of Family Size, Human Capital and Working Time," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 546-561, September.
    2. Jiang Li & Benoit Dostie & Gaëlle Simard-Duplain, 2023. "Firm Pay Policies and the Gender Earnings Gap: The Mediating Role of Marital and Family Status," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 76(1), pages 160-188, January.
    3. Gozde Corekcioglu & Marco Francesconi & Astrid Kunze, 2025. "Parental Leave from the Firm’s Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 11868, CESifo.
    4. Iv'an Fern'andez-Val & Franco Peracchi & Aico van Vuuren & Francis Vella, 2018. "Selection and the Distribution of Female Hourly Wages in the U.S," Papers 1901.00419, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    5. Joseph G. Altonji & John Eric Humphries & Yagmur Yuksel & Ling Zhong, 2025. "Decomposing Trends in the Gender Gap for Highly Educated Workers," NBER Working Papers 34133, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ezgi Kaya, 2025. "Differences in labour market outcomes between immigrant and UK‐born employees: evidence from linked data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 127(4), pages 765-808, October.
    7. Deschacht, Nick & Guillemyn, Inés & Vujic, Suncica, 2025. "Exposing the Gap: Gender Inequality in Occupational Pension Coverage and Income Across Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 18163, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. George J. Borjas & Anthony Edo, 2023. "Monopsony, Efficiency, and the Regularization of Undocumented Immigrants," NBER Working Papers 31457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Egshiglen Batbayar & Christoph Breunig & Peter Haan & Boryana Ilieva, 2025. "Quantile Selection in the Gender Pay Gap," Papers 2511.16187, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    10. Borjas, George J. & Edo, Anthony, 2023. "Monopsony, Efficiency, and the Regularization of Undocumented Immigrants," IZA Discussion Papers 16297, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Richard Blundell & Hugo Lopez & James P. Ziliak, 2025. "Labor Market Inequality and the Changing Life Cycle Profile of Male and Female Wages," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 100-133, October.
    12. Iv'an Fern'andez-Val & Aico van Vuuren & Francis Vella, 2023. "Marital Sorting, Household Inequality and Selection," Papers 2310.07839, arXiv.org.
    13. Ahrsjö, Ulrika & Niknami, Susan & Palme, Mårten, 2021. "Wage Inequality, Selection and the Evolution of the Gender Earnings Gap in Sweden," Research Papers in Economics 2021:3, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    14. Joyce Jacobsen & Melanie Khamis & Mutlu Yuksel, 2024. "Demography, Human Capital Investment, and Lifetime Earnings for Women and Men," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 50(3), pages 259-277, June.
    15. Iván Fernández‐Val & Aico van Vuuren & Francis Vella & Franco Peracchi, 2023. "Selection and the distribution of female real hourly wages in the United States," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), pages 571-607, May.
    16. Francine D. Blau & Isaac Cohen & Matthew L. Comey & Lawrence Kahn & Nikolai Boboshko, 2023. "The Minimum Wage and Inequality Between Groups," NBER Working Papers 31725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Simonetta Longhi, 2025. "Success stories and continuing challenges: A longitudinal analysis of gender-ethnic wage gaps in the UK," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2507, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    18. Amighini, Alessia & Fang, Weidi & Zagler, Martin, 2025. "On the evolution of the wage premium for party membership in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    19. Li, Lilian & Cheng, Mingwang & Chen, Chunyan, 2025. "Gender wage gap of migrant workers and its root causes: Gender discrimination or labor endowment?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J71 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Discrimination - - - Hiring and Firing

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