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The 2009 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture: Diversified Treatment Under Ambiguity

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  • Charles F. Manski

Abstract

This article develops a broad theme about treatment under ambiguity through study of a particular decision criterion. The broad theme is that a planner may want to cope with ambiguity by diversification, assigning observationally identical persons to different treatments. Study of the minimax-regret (MR) criterion substantiates the theme. The article significantly extends my earlier analysis of one-period planning with an individualistic treatment and a linear welfare function. I show that MR treatment allocations are fractional in a large class of planning problems with nonlinear welfare functions, interacting treatments, learning, and noncooperative aspects. Copyright © (2009) by the Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles F. Manski, 2009. "The 2009 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture: Diversified Treatment Under Ambiguity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1013-1041, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:50:y:2009:i:4:p:1013-1041
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    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2009.00558.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Improving Clinical Guidelines and Decisions under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 23915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Basu, Anirban, 2015. "Welfare implications of learning through solicitation versus diversification in health care," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 165-173.
    3. Steven N. Durlauf & Daniel S. Nagin, 2010. "The Deterrent Effect of Imprisonment," NBER Chapters,in: Controlling Crime: Strategies and Tradeoffs, pages 43-94 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. repec:kap:theord:v:83:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11238-017-9592-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Massimo Marinacci, 2015. "Model Uncertainty," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1022-1100, December.
    6. Charles F. Manski, 2014. "Vaccine Approvals and Mandates Under Uncertainty: Some Simple Analytics," NBER Working Papers 20432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. repec:kap:enreec:v:68:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10640-016-0062-y is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Charles Manski, 2011. "Actualist rationality," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 71(2), pages 195-210, August.

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