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Policy Evaluation in the Presence of Spatial Externalities: Reassessing the Progresa Program

  • Matteo Bobba

    (IDB - Inter-American Development Bank - Inter-American Development Bank)

  • Jérémie Gignoux

    (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - École normale supérieure [ENS] - Paris - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA), EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris)

This paper considers whether and how the evaluation results of a large-scale social policy in rural Mexico are sensitive to the local concentration of program beneficiaries. Combining evaluation survey data with geo-referenced information on the areas covered by the intervention, we find evidence of positive spillovers across villages on school participation decisions. Those effects occur exclusively between households entitled to receive the program, and they tend to vanish among less adjacent villages and at higher degrees of program density. Analyzing treatment impacts at the level of sufficiently extended geographical areas seems crucial to account for such spatial externalities.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series PSE Working Papers with number halshs-00646590.

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Date of creation: Feb 2014
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Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-00646590
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00646590
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  1. Michael Kremer & Edward Miguel & Rebecca Thornton, 2004. "Incentives to Learn," NBER Working Papers 10971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Dubois, Pierre & Rubio-Codina, Marta, 2010. "Child Care Provision: Semiparametric Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Mexico," IDEI Working Papers 542, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Sep 2011.
  3. de Brauw, Alan & Hoddinott, John, 2008. "Must conditional cash transfer programs be conditioned to be effective?: The impact of conditioning transfers on school enrollment in Mexico," IFPRI discussion papers 757, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. Chiapa, Carlos & Garrido, José Luis & Prina, Silvia, 2012. "The effect of social programs and exposure to professionals on the educational aspirations of the poor," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 778-798.
  5. Jeffrey R Kling & Jeffrey B Liebman & Lawrence F Katz, 2007. "Experimental Analysis of Neighborhood Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(1), pages 83-119, 01.
  6. Crépon, Bruno & Duflo, Esther & Gurgand, Marc & Rathelot, Roland & Zamora, Philippe, 2012. "Do Labor Market Policies Have Displacement Effects? Evidence from a Clustered Randomized Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 9251, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Filmer, Deon & Schady, Norbert, 2011. "Does more cash in conditional cash transfer programs always lead to larger impacts on school attendance?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 150-157, September.
  8. Angelucci, Manuela & De Giorgi, Giacomo & Rangel, Marcos A. & Rasul, Imran, 2010. "Family networks and school enrolment: Evidence from a randomized social experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(3-4), pages 197-221, April.
  9. Parker, Susan W. & Rubalcava, Luis & Teruel, Graciela, 2008. "Evaluating Conditional Schooling and Health Programs," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier.
  10. Paul Schultz, T., 2004. "School subsidies for the poor: evaluating the Mexican Progresa poverty program," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 199-250, June.
  11. Manuela Angelucci & Giacomo De Giorgi, 2009. "Indirect Effects of an Aid Program: How Do Cash Transfers Affect Ineligibles' Consumption?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 486-508, March.
  12. Ariel Fiszbein & Norbert Schady & Francisco H.G. Ferreira & Margaret Grosh & Niall Keleher & Pedro Olinto & Emmanuel Skoufias, 2009. "Conditional Cash Transfers : Reducing Present and Future Poverty," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2597.
  13. Gustavo J. Bobonis & Frederico Finan, 2009. "Neighborhood Peer Effects in Secondary School Enrollment Decisions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 695-716, November.
  14. Macours, Karen & Vakis, Renos, 2009. "Changing households'investments and aspirations through social interactions : evidence from a randomized transfer program," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5137, The World Bank.
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