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A Statistical Programme Assignment Model

Author

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  • Michael Rosholm
  • Jonas Staghøj
  • Michael Svarer

    () (School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark)

Abstract

When treatment effects of active labour market programmes are heterogeneous in an observable way across the population, the allocation of the unemployed into different programmes becomes a particularly important issue. In this paper, we present a statistical model designed to improve the present assignment mechanism, which is based on the discretionary choice of case workers. This is done in a duration model context, using the timing-of-events framework to identify causal effects. We compare different assignment mechanisms, and the results suggest that a significant reduction in the average duration of unemployment spells may result if a statistical programme assignment model is introduced. We discuss several issues regarding the implementation of such a system, especially the interplay between the statistical model and case workers.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Rosholm & Jonas Staghøj & Michael Svarer, 2007. "A Statistical Programme Assignment Model," Economics Working Papers 2007-16, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:aarhec:2007-16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stefanie Behncke & Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner, 2009. "Targeting Labour Market Programmes - Results from a Randomized Experiment," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(III), pages 221-268, September.
    2. Kyyrä, Tomi & Parrotta, Pierpaolo & Rosholm, Michael, 2013. "The effect of receiving supplementary UI benefits on unemployment duration," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 122-133.
    3. Bas van der Klaauw & Sandra Vriend, 2015. "A Nonparametric Method for Predicting Survival Probabilities," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-126/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Weber, Andrea, 2008. "Individual Incentives in Program Participation: Splitting up the Process in Assignment and Enrollment," IZA Discussion Papers 3404, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Torben Andersen & Michael Svarer, 2008. "Flexicurity in Denmark," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(4), pages 15-20, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Profiling; Targeting; Statistical Treatment Rules; Heterogeneous Effects;

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy

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