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A Statistical Programme Assignment Model

  • Michael Rosholm
  • Jonas Staghøj
  • Michael Svarer


    (School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark)

When treatment effects of active labour market programmes are heterogeneous in an observable way across the population, the allocation of the unemployed into different programmes becomes a particularly important issue. In this paper, we present a statistical model designed to improve the present assignment mechanism, which is based on the discretionary choice of case workers. This is done in a duration model context, using the timing-of-events framework to identify causal effects. We compare different assignment mechanisms, and the results suggest that a significant reduction in the average duration of unemployment spells may result if a statistical programme assignment model is introduced. We discuss several issues regarding the implementation of such a system, especially the interplay between the statistical model and case workers.

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Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2007-16.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: 12 Nov 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aah:aarhec:2007-16
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  1. William C. Horrace & Peter Schmidt, 2000. "Multiple comparisons with the best, with economic applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 1-26.
  2. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1491-1517, 09.
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  4. Frölich, Markus, 2006. "Statistical Treatment Choice: An Application to Active Labour Market Programmes," IZA Discussion Papers 2187, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Michael Rosholm & Michael Svarer, 2004. "Estimating the Threat Effect of Active Labour Market Programmes," CAM Working Papers 2004-14, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics.
  6. Gaure, Simen & Røed, Knut & Zhang, Tao, 2005. "Time and Causality: A Monte Carlo Assessment of the Timing-of-Events Approach," Memorandum 19/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  7. James J. Heckman & Jeffrey Smith & Nancy Clements, 1997. "Making The Most Out Of Programme Evaluations and Social Experiments: Accounting For Heterogeneity in Programme Impacts," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(4), pages 487-535.
  8. Lars Pico Geerdsen, 2006. "Is there a Threat Effect of Labour Market Programmes? A Study of ALMP in the Danish UI System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(513), pages 738-750, 07.
  9. Heckman, James J. & Urzua, Sergio & Vytlacil, Edward, 2006. "Understanding Instrumental Variables in Models with Essential Heterogeneity," IZA Discussion Papers 2320, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. Stefanie Behncke & Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner, 2006. "Statistical Assistance for Programme Selection - For a Better Targeting of Active Labour Market Policies in Switzerland," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2006 2006-09, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
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  12. Frölich, Markus & Lechner, Michael & Steiger, Heidi, 2003. "Statistically assisted programme selection - International experiences and potential benefits for Switzerland," Working Paper Series 2004:1, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  13. Mark C. Berger & Dan Black & Jeffrey Smith, 2000. "Evaluating Profiling as a Means of Allocating Government Services," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 200018, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  14. Stefanie Behncke & Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner, 2009. "Targeting Labour Market Programmes - Results from a Randomized Experiment," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(III), pages 221-268, September.
  15. Nikolay Nenovsky & S. Statev, 2006. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00260898, HAL.
  16. Christopher J. O'Leary & Paul T. Decker & Stephen A. Wandner, 2002. "Targeting Reemployment Bonuses," Book chapters authored by Upjohn Institute researchers, in: Stephen A. Wandner & Randall W. Eberts & Christopher J. O'Leary (ed.), Targeting Employment Services, chapter 6, pages 161-182 W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
  17. Brinch, Christian N., 2007. "Nonparametric Identification Of The Mixed Hazards Model With Time-Varying Covariates," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(02), pages 349-354, April.
  18. Torben M. Andersen & Michael Svarer, 2007. "Flexicurity: Labour Market Performance in Denmark," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 53(3), pages 389-429, September.
  19. Peter Jensen & Michael Svarer, 2003. "Short- and long-term unemployment: How do temporary layoffs affect this distinction?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 23-44, January.
  20. Lechner, Michael & Smith, Jeffrey A., 2003. "What is the Value Added by Caseworkers?," IZA Discussion Papers 728, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  21. Dan A. Black & Jeffrey A. Smith & Mark C. Berger & Brett J. Noel, 2003. "Is the Threat of Reemployment Services More Effective Than the Services Themselves? Evidence from Random Assignment in the UI System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1313-1327, September.
  22. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
  23. Charles F. Manski, 2006. "Profiling: Introduction to the Feature," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(515), pages F347-F350, November.
  24. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1221-1246, 07.
  25. Michael Rosholm & Michael Svarer & Bo Hammer, 2004. "A Danish Profiling System," Economics Working Papers 2004-13, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  26. Stephan, Gesine & Rässler, Susanne & Schewe, Torben, 2006. "Wirkungsanalyse in der Bundesagentur für Arbeit : Konzeption, Datenbasis und ausgewählte Befunde," IAB Discussion Paper 200607, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  27. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460 Elsevier.
  28. M. Ruth & K. Donaghy & P. Kirshen, 2006. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Regional Climate Change and Variability, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
  29. Nicola Persico & Petra E. Todd, 2005. "Passenger Profiling, Imperfect Screening, and Airport Security," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 127-131, May.
  30. Nicola Persico, 2002. "Racial Profiling, Fairness, and Effectiveness of Policing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1472-1497, December.
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