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The Transition from Short- to Long-Term Unemployment: A Statistical Profiling Model for Ireland

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  • PHILIP J. O’CONNELL

    (The Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin Trinity College Dublin)

  • SEAMUS MCGUINNESS

    (The Economic and Social Research Institute Dublin, Trinity College Dublin, National Institute of Labour Studies Flinders University Australia)

  • ELISH KELLY

    (The Economic and Social Research Institute Dublin, Trinity College Dublin)

Abstract

This paper develops a statistical profiling model of long-term unemployment risk in Ireland. We use a combination of administrative data and information gathered from a unique questionnaire that was issued to all jobseekers making a social welfare claim between September and December 2006 who were then tracked for eighteen months. We find that factors such as a recent history of long-term unemployment, advanced age, number of children, relatively low levels of education, literacy/numeracy problems, location in urban areas, lack of personal transport, low rates of recent labour market engagement, spousal earnings and geographic location all significantly affect the likelihood of remaining unemployed for twelve months or more. While the predicted probability distribution for males was found to be relatively normal, the female distribution was bimodal, indicating that larger proportions of females were at risk of falling into long-term unemployment. We find evidence that community based employment schemes for combating long-term unemployment have little effect as participants re-entering the register typically experience extended durations. Finally, we argue that the adoption of an unemployment profiling system will result in both equity and efficiency gains to Public Employment Services

Suggested Citation

  • Philip J. O’Connell & Seamus Mcguinness & Elish Kelly, 2012. "The Transition from Short- to Long-Term Unemployment: A Statistical Profiling Model for Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 43(1), pages 135-164.
  • Handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:43:y:2012:i:1:p:135-164
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    File URL: http://www.esr.ie/vol43_1/05%20Kelly.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Rosholm & Michael Svarer & Bo Hammer, 2004. "A Danish Profiling System," CAM Working Papers 2004-22, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics.
    2. Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner & Heidi Steiger, 2003. "Statistically Assisted Programme Selection - International Experiences and Potential Benefits for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(III), pages 311-331, September.
    3. Lechner, Michael & Smith, Jeffrey, 2007. "What is the value added by caseworkers?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 135-151, April.
    4. Stefanie Behncke & Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner, 2009. "Targeting Labour Market Programmes - Results from a Randomized Experiment," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(III), pages 221-268, September.
    5. Stefanie Behncke & Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner, 2006. "Statistical Assistance for Programme Selection - For a Better Targeting of Active Labour Market Policies in Switzerland," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 4(2), pages 61-68, 07.
    6. Denny, Kevin & Harmon, Colm & O'Connell, Philip J., 2000. "Investing in People: The Labour Market Impact of Human Resource Interventions Funded under the 1994-1999 Community Support Framework in Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS38.
    7. Fahr, René & Sunde, Uwe, 2006. "Did the Hartz Reforms Speed-Up Job Creation? A Macro-Evaluation Using Empirical Matching Functions," IZA Discussion Papers 2470, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    8. O'Connell, Philip J. & McGuinness, Seamus & Kelly, Elish & Walsh, John R., 2009. "National Profiling of the Unemployed in Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS10.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Seamus McGuinness & Philip J. O’Connell & Elish Kelly, 2013. "Carrots, No Stick, No Driver: The Employment Impact of Job Search Assistance in a Regime with Minimal Monitoring and Sanctions," Working Papers 201308, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    2. repec:esr:resser:rs58 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Kelly, Elish & McGuinness, Seamus & O'Connell, Philip J., 2012. "Literacy, Numeracy and Activation among the Unemployed," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS25.
    4. Assadi, Anahita & Lundin, Martin, 2015. "Tenure and street-level bureaucrats: how assessment tools are used at the frontline of the public sector," Working Paper Series 2015:19, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    5. repec:esr:resser:bkmnext226 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gerard Brady, 2015. "Network Social Capital and Labour Market Outcomes: Evidence For Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 46(2), pages 163-195.

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