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A Statistical Programme Assignment Model

  • Staghøj, Jonas

    ()

    (Aarhus University)

  • Svarer, Michael

    ()

    (Aarhus University)

  • Rosholm, Michael

    ()

    (Aarhus University)

When treatment effects of active labour market programmes are heterogeneous in an observable way across the population, the allocation of the unemployed into different programmes becomes a particularly important issue. In this paper, we present a statistical model designed to improve the present assignment mechanism, which is based on the discretionary choice of case workers. This is done in a duration model context, using the timing-of-events framework to identify causal effects. We compare different assignment mechanisms, and the results suggest that a significant reduction in the average duration of unemployment spells may result if a statistical programme assignment model is introduced. We discuss several issues regarding the implementation of such a system, especially the interplay between the statistical model and case workers.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 3165.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3165
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  1. Nicola Persico & Petra Todd, 2005. "Passenger Profiling, Imperfect Screening, and Airport Security," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-005, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  2. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1221-1246, 07.
  3. Charles F. Manski, 2006. "Profiling: Introduction to the Feature," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(515), pages F347-F350, November.
  4. James J. Heckman & Sergio Urzua & Edward J. Vytlacil, 2006. "Understanding Instrumental Variables in Models with Essential Heterogeneity," NBER Working Papers 12574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Stephan, Gesine & Rässler, Susanne & Schewe, Torben, 2006. "Wirkungsanalyse in der Bundesagentur für Arbeit : Konzeption, Datenbasis und ausgewählte Befunde," IAB Discussion Paper 200607, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  6. Gaure, Simen & Roed, Knut & Zhang, Tao, 2007. "Time and causality: A Monte Carlo assessment of the timing-of-events approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1159-1195, December.
  7. Mark C. Berger & Dan Black & Jeffrey Smith, 2000. "Evaluating Profiling as a Means of Allocating Government Services," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 200018, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  8. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460 Elsevier.
  9. Michael Rosholm & Michael Svarer & Bo Hammer, 2004. "A Danish Profiling System," Economics Working Papers 2004-13, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  10. Lechner, Michael & Smith, Jeffrey A., 2003. "What is the Value Added by Caseworkers?," IZA Discussion Papers 728, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Stefanie Behncke & Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner, 2006. "Statistical Assistance for Programme Selection - For a Better Targeting of Active Labour Market Policies in Switzerland," CESifo DICE Report, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 4(2), pages 61-68, 07.
  12. Stefanie Behncke & Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner, 2009. "Targeting Labour Market Programmes - Results from a Randomized Experiment," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(III), pages 221-268, September.
  13. Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner & Heidi Steiger, 2003. "Statistically Assisted Programme Selection - International Experiences and Potential Benefits for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(III), pages 311-331, September.
  14. William C. Horrace & Peter Schmidt, 2000. "Multiple comparisons with the best, with economic applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 1-26.
  15. Torben M. Andersen & Michael Svarer, 2007. "Flexicurity: Labour Market Performance in Denmark," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 53(3), pages 389-429, September.
  16. M. Ruth & K. Donaghy & P. Kirshen, 2006. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Regional Climate Change and Variability, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
  17. Frölich, Markus, 2006. "Statistical Treatment Choice: An Application to Active Labour Market Programmes," IZA Discussion Papers 2187, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  18. Nicola Persico, 2002. "Racial Profiling, Fairness, and Effectiveness of Policing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1472-1497, December.
  19. Dan A. Black & Jeffrey A. Smith & Mark C. Berger & Brett J. Noel, 2003. "Is the Threat of Reemployment Services More Effective Than the Services Themselves? Evidence from Random Assignment in the UI System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1313-1327, September.
  20. Bell, Stephen H. & Orr, Larry L., 2002. "Screening (and creaming?) applicants to job training programs: the AFDC homemaker-home health aide demonstrations," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 279-301, April.
  21. Michael Rosholm & Michael Svarer, 2004. "Estimating the Threat Effect of Active Labour Market Programmes," Economics Working Papers 2004-6, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  22. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1491-1517, 09.
  23. Christopher J OLeary Paul T Decker Stephen A Wandner, 2002. "Targeting Reemployment Bonuses," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 67fc970607294ed5af434a07e, Mathematica Policy Research.
  24. Heckman, James J & Smith, Jeffrey, 1997. "Making the Most Out of Programme Evaluations and Social Experiments: Accounting for Heterogeneity in Programme Impacts," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 487-535, October.
  25. Lars Pico Geerdsen, 2006. "Is there a Threat Effect of Labour Market Programmes? A Study of ALMP in the Danish UI System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(513), pages 738-750, 07.
  26. repec:mpr:mprres:3005 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
  28. Jensen, P. & Nielsen, M.S., 1999. "Short- and Long-Term Unemployment: How do Temporary Layoffs Affect this Distinction?," Papers 99-06, Centre for Labour Market and Social Research, Danmark-.
  29. Brinch, Christian N., 2007. "Nonparametric Identification Of The Mixed Hazards Model With Time-Varying Covariates," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(02), pages 349-354, April.
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