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A survey-based choice experiment on coca cultivation

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  • Ibanez, Marcela
  • Carlsson, Fredrik

Abstract

From 1997 to 2005, an astonishing 5200Â million USD was invested to reduce cocaine production in Colombia, the world's main cocaine producer. However, little is known about the effectiveness of policies targeting coca cultivation. This paper uses a survey-based experiment to evaluate the effects of the two main policies: eradication and alternative development programs. Our results support Becker's (1968) model of crime participation and in addition shed light on other non-monetary factors that affect the coca cultivation decision: religion, legitimacy, remoteness, and poverty are found to be important. We find that coca cultivation is inelastic to increases in perceived risk and relative profit so eradication and alternative development would have a rather small effect on coca cultivation. A simple simulation exercise predicts that investing additional hundred thousand dollars in eradication decreases coca cultivation in only 1.5%.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibanez, Marcela & Carlsson, Fredrik, 2010. "A survey-based choice experiment on coca cultivation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 249-263, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:93:y:2010:i:2:p:249-263
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    2. Reyes, Luis Carlos, 2014. "Estimating the Causal Effect of Forced Eradication on Coca Cultivation in Colombian Municipalities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 70-84.
    3. Mounu Prem & Juan F. Vargas & Daniel Mejía, 2023. "The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 344-358, March.
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    5. Sagamba, MoÏse & Shchetinin, Oleg & Yusupov, Nurmukhammad, 2013. "Do Microloan Officers Want to Lend to the Less Advantaged? Evidence from a Choice Experiment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 182-198.
    6. Veronesi, Marcella & Reutemann, Tim & Zabel, Astrid & Engel, Stefanie, 2015. "Designing REDD+ schemes when forest users are not forest landowners: Evidence from a survey-based experiment in Kenya," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 46-57.
    7. Greenfield, Victoria A. & Bond, Craig A. & Crane, Keith, 2017. "A household model of opium-poppy cultivation in Afghanistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 741-761.
    8. Eleonora Dávalos & Leonardo Fabio Morales, 2019. "Is there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 17350, Universidad EAFIT.
    9. Pinedo, Wilman J. Iglesias, 2022. "The Effect of Plan Colombia on the Value of Legal Agricultural Production," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322605, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Angulo, Juan Carlos, 2024. "Books and bushes: Schooling decisions and coca production in Colombia," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 344036, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Andersson, Camilla I.M., 2011. "Counterproductive Counternarcotic Strategies?," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 118959, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    12. Meng, Lei, 2020. "Permanent migration desire of Chinese rural residents: Evidence from field surveys, 2006–2015," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    13. Jaqueline Garcia-Yi, 2015. "Drugs and Protected Areas: Coca Cultivation and Social Acceptance of Bahuaja-Sonene National Park in Peru," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-27, June.
    14. Diego A. Martin, 2023. "The Impact of a Rise in Expected Income on Child Labor: Evidence From Coca Production in Colombia," CID Working Papers 150a, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    15. Juan Carlos Mu�oz-Mora & Santiago Tob�n-Zapata & Jesse d'Anjou, 2014. "Does land titling matter? The role of land property rights in the war on illicit crops in Colombia," HiCN Working Papers 168, Households in Conflict Network.
    16. Francesco Bogliacino & Alberto J. Naranjo, 2012. "Coca Leaves Production and Eradication: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 382-397.
    17. Trinh, Tra Thi & Munro, Alistair, 2023. "Integrating a choice experiment into an agent-based model to simulate climate-change induced migration: The case of the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
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    19. Miguel Serrano López, 2020. "Violencia y corrupción como estrategias de maximización en mercados ilegales: el caso de la coca," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 39(81), pages 949-974, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Illegal drugs Choice experiment Colombia Crime;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • Z12 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Religion
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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