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On the effects of enforcement on illegal markets : evidence from a quasi-experiment in Colombia

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  • Mejía,Daniel
  • Restrepo,Pascual
  • Rozo,Sandra V.

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of enforcement on illegal behavior in the context of a large aerial spraying program designed to curb coca cultivation in Colombia. In 2006, the Colombian government pledged not to spray a 10 km band around the frontier with Ecuador due to diplomatic frictions arising from the possibly negative collateral effects of this policy on the Ecuadorian side of the border. This variation is used to estimate the effect of spraying on coca cultivation by regression discontinuity around the 10 km threshold and by conditional differences in differences. The results suggest that spraying one additional hectare reduces coca cultivation by 0.022 to 0.03 hectares; these effects are too small to make aerial spraying a cost-effective policy for reducing cocaine production in Colombia.

Suggested Citation

  • Mejía,Daniel & Restrepo,Pascual & Rozo,Sandra V., 2015. "On the effects of enforcement on illegal markets : evidence from a quasi-experiment in Colombia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7409, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7409
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    1. Mounu Prem & Juan F. Vargas & Daniel Mejía, 2023. "The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 344-358, March.
    2. Juan Pablo Cote, 2019. "The Effect of Interdiction on Coca Cultivation in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 17316, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    3. Carvajal, Hernán, 2023. "Efectos de la suspensión de las aspersiones aéreas con glifosato sobre la deserción escolar en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 20307, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    4. Lucas Marín Llanes, 2020. "Unintended Consequences of Alternative Development Programs: Evidence From Colombia's Illegal Crop Substitution," Documentos CEDE 18468, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    5. Eleonora Dávalos & Leonardo Fabio Morales, 2023. "Diffusion of crime control benefits: forced eradication and coca crops in Colombia," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 292-317, July.
    6. Maria Micaela Sviatschi, 2019. "Making a Narco: Childhood Exposure to Illegal Labor Markets and Criminal Life Paths," Working Papers 2019-28, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    7. Ladino, Juan Felipe & Saavedra, Santiago & Wiesner, Daniel, 2021. "One step ahead of the law: The net effect of anticipation and implementation of Colombia’s illegal crops substitution program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    8. José Fernández & Matteo Pazzona, 2015. "Evaluating the Spillover Effects of the Plan Colombia in Ecuador," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 15/667, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    9. Leonardo Bonilla Mejía & Iván Higuera Mendieta, 2016. "¿Parques de papel? Áreas protegidas y deforestación en Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 15206, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    10. Hernando Zuleta González, 2017. "Coca, cocaína y narcotráfico," Documentos CEDE 15634, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    11. Eleonora Dávalos & Leonardo Fabio Morales, 2019. "Is there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 17350, Universidad EAFIT.
    12. Mejia, Daniel & Restrepo, Pascual, 2016. "The economics of the war on illegal drug production and trafficking," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 126(PA), pages 255-275.
    13. Maria Micaela Sviatschi, 2018. "Making a Narco: Childhood Exposure to Illegal Labor Markets and Criminal Life Paths," Working Papers sviatschi_making-a-narco_, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
    14. Pinedo, Wilman J. Iglesias, 2022. "The Effect of Plan Colombia on the Value of Legal Agricultural Production," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322605, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. McCully, Brett, 2021. "Immigrants, Legal Status, and Illegal Trade," MPRA Paper 109610, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Freylejer, Leandro & Orr, Scott, 2023. "Import substitution in illicit methamphetamine markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    17. Muñoz-Mora, Juan Carlos & Tobón, Santiago & d’Anjou, Jesse Willem, 2018. "The role of land property rights in the war on illicit crops: Evidence from Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 268-283.
    18. Bonilla-Mejía, Leonardo & Higuera-Mendieta, Iván, 2019. "Protected Areas under Weak Institutions: Evidence from Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 585-596.
    19. Camacho, Adriana & Mejía, Daniel, 2017. "The health consequences of aerial spraying illicit crops: The case of Colombia," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 147-160.
    20. Gehring, Kai & Langlotz, Sarah & Kienberger, Stefan, 2018. "Stimulant or depressant? Resource-related income shocks and conflict," Working Papers 0652, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pest Management; Science Education; International Terrorism&Counterterrorism; Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures; Crops and Crop Management Systems;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O21 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy

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