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Estimating the causal effect of forced eradication on coca cultivation in Colombian municipalities

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  • Reyes, Luis Carlos

Abstract

Coca eradication has been aggressively pursued by the Colombian government to reduce the amount of land that agricultural households in the Andean country devote to this illegal crop. However, little work has been done to assess the causal effect of the policy on land allocation decisions. I use a six year panel of observations covering the entire country for the years 2001-2006 to estimate this effect at the municipality level, exploiting exogenous sources of variation in eradication and taking an IV approach to estimation. The instruments are derived from changes in the expected cost of coca eradication as crews get far from the zone where Antinarcotics Police helicopters can protect them from the illegal armed groups that try to shoot them down. IV estimation shows that the causal effect of a one percent increase in eradication is slightly less than a one percent increase in coca cultivation.

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  • Reyes, Luis Carlos, 2011. "Estimating the causal effect of forced eradication on coca cultivation in Colombian municipalities," MPRA Paper 33478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33478
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    2. Daniel Mejía & Pascual Restrepo & Sandra V. Rozo, 2017. "On the Effects of Enforcement on Illegal Markets: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment in Colombia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 31(2), pages 570-594.
    3. Austin L. Wright, 2016. "Economic Shocks and Rebel," HiCN Working Papers 232, Households in Conflict Network.
    4. Vasquez Escallon, Juanita, 2015. "When too much punishment decreases legality. The case of coca-reducing policies in Colombia," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113156, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Greenfield, Victoria A. & Bond, Craig A. & Crane, Keith, 2017. "A household model of opium-poppy cultivation in Afghanistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 741-761.
    6. Juan Pablo Cote, 2019. "The Effect of Interdiction on Coca Cultivation in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 17316, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    7. Carvajal, Hernán, 2023. "Efectos de la suspensión de las aspersiones aéreas con glifosato sobre la deserción escolar en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 20307, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    8. Ladino, Juan Felipe & Saavedra, Santiago & Wiesner, Daniel, 2021. "One step ahead of the law: The net effect of anticipation and implementation of Colombia’s illegal crops substitution program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    9. José Fernández & Matteo Pazzona, 2015. "Evaluating the Spillover Effects of the Plan Colombia in Ecuador," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 15/667, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    10. Millán-Quijano, Jaime & Pulgarín, Sebastián, 2023. "Oiling up the field. Forced internal displacement and the expansion of palm oil in Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    11. Eleonora Dávalos & Leonardo Fabio Morales, 2019. "Is there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 17350, Universidad EAFIT.
    12. Pinedo, Wilman J. Iglesias, 2022. "The Effect of Plan Colombia on the Value of Legal Agricultural Production," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322605, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Alejandra Vélez, María & Lobo, Iván, 2019. "Challenges of organised community resistance in the context of illicit economies and drug war policies: insights from Colombia," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100325, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Diego A. Martin, 2023. "The Impact of a Rise in Expected Income on Child Labor: Evidence From Coca Production in Colombia," CID Working Papers 150a, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    15. Grisaffi, Thomas & Farthing, Linda & Ledebur, Kathryn & Paredes, Maritza & Pastor, Alvaro, 2021. "From criminals to citizens: The applicability of Bolivia’s community-based coca control policy to Peru," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    16. Camacho, Adriana & Mejía, Daniel, 2017. "The health consequences of aerial spraying illicit crops: The case of Colombia," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 147-160.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural Development; Coca; Cocaine; Colombia; Illegal Crops; crime;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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